Shares of Deterra Royalties Ltd (ASX: DRR) experienced a significant decline on Thursday, falling over 6% to $3.92. This drop erases the gains made the previous day, prompting questions about whether this represents a buying opportunity for investors. Analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have weighed in on the situation, providing insights into the company’s recent transactions and future outlook.
Recent Transactions and Analyst Insights
Macquarie highlighted that Deterra Royalties has successfully agreed to sell its gold offtakes from the recent Trident deal for US$56 million. This sale complements an earlier transaction involving the La Preciosa royalty package, which was sold for US$22 million. These transactions mark the conclusion of a strategic portfolio revamp for the company.
“Deterra’s sale of its non-core gold offtakes for US$56 million marks the final stage of a portfolio cleanse following the Trident acquisition,” Macquarie noted. The broker added that the cumulative sales from these transactions yield a total of US$78 million, or just over A$100 million. The firm estimates that these transactions generated a pre-tax internal rate of return (IRR) of approximately 25% since the acquisition.
Macquarie expressed a supportive view on the recent transactions, indicating that Deterra is now refocused on being an industrial metals-focused royalty vehicle. They stated: “Clean-up complete, back to base: The gold offtake foray was a function of acquiring Trident for Thacker Pass and the basket of preproduction royalties.”
Investment Outlook and Recommendations
Despite the recent share price decline, Macquarie maintains a neutral rating on Deterra Royalties with a price target of $4.20. At the current share price of $3.92, this reflects a potential upside of 7.1% over the next twelve months. Additionally, the broker forecasts a dividend yield of 5.2% for the financial year 2026, bringing the total potential return to approximately 12% over the same period.
Macquarie’s neutral stance suggests that while the transaction simplifies Deterra’s focus on industrial metals without exposure to precious metals, the company may appeal to investors seeking lower-risk exposure to the industrial metals sector. “Those looking to have exposure to the industrial metals complex for lower beta may find Deterra an attractive alternative to higher operationally leveraged exposures,” the broker commented.
Looking ahead, progress updates on the Thacker Pass phase 1 construction and first production are anticipated catalysts for the stock’s performance.
Investors considering a stake in Deterra Royalties Limited should weigh these insights carefully. The company, although not highlighted as a top pick by investing expert Scott Phillips, remains a relevant option for those interested in the mining sector.
For investors seeking to diversify, it is vital to conduct thorough research and consider the broader market conditions impacting the ASX 200 mining stocks.
