Anthony Albanese is set to engage in crucial discussions with China’s President Xi Jinping this week, a meeting that has significant implications for Australia-China relations. According to former Australian Ambassador to China, Geoff Raby, this moment is pivotal for both countries, particularly as bilateral trade has nearly tripled over the past decade and a half, now totaling approximately $100 billion annually in Australian iron ore exports.
Raby, who has extensive diplomatic experience in China, emphasized the importance of the relationship, stating, “The relationship in China means jobs in Australia. It’s as simple as that.” As the Prime Minister prepares for these talks, he acknowledges that China represents a larger trading partner than the next three combined.
In the context of evolving global dynamics, Raby noted that while China has emerged as a military superpower, the prevailing notion that it poses a direct threat to Australia is misguided. He argued that China is more focused on maintaining its own stability and economic growth, a sentiment he expressed through the lens of China’s extensive land borders with 14 countries and its various territorial issues, including those concerning Xinjiang, Tibet, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.
Challenges of AUKUS and Regional Stability
A central aspect of Australia’s recent security policy has been the AUKUS pact, a trilateral agreement involving the United States and the United Kingdom aimed at enhancing military cooperation. Raby criticized this approach, labelling it a “foreign policy failure for Australia.” He argued that decades of efforts to integrate Australia into the Asian context are jeopardized by this agreement, which he believes undermines a long-standing cornerstone of Australian foreign policy.
As Prime Minister Albanese approaches his meeting in China, the implications of AUKUS loom large, particularly with the Pentagon reassessing the agreement under the current U.S. administration. Raby raised concerns about whether Australia can depend on the United States for defense, questioning the reliability of its commitments. “Serious defence analysts question that these days,” he added.
Raby advocates for an independent foreign policy that relies more on regional relationships rather than solely on AUKUS partners. He believes that Australia must be capable of making its own strategic decisions, especially in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
Key Discussion Points for the Meeting
During the upcoming meeting, Raby advised that Albanese should prioritize discussions on human rights issues and the cases of Australians currently imprisoned in China. Furthermore, he stressed the importance of obtaining a clear understanding from President Xi regarding China’s vision for a close economic relationship with Australia.
This meeting marks the fourth encounter between Albanese and Xi, and Raby suggests that the personal dynamics play a crucial role in the discussions. With Albanese yet to have a significant meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, any positive developments in his talks with Xi are likely to be closely scrutinized.
As the Prime Minister prepares for this important dialogue, the outcomes will likely shape the trajectory of Australia’s foreign policy and economic engagement with China in the years to come.
