As the 2025 college football season approaches, analysts are closely examining which teams are positioned to make significant strides following a mix of successes and setbacks in 2024. Utilizing a combination of preseason polls, computer projections, and historical performance data, certain teams have emerged as strong candidates for improvement.
According to the data, last season’s top teams often maintain their success, but surprises are also common. The 2024 season highlighted this trend, with six of last year’s preseason top ten finishing in the upper echelon by season’s end, while others like Michigan and Florida State fell dramatically from their initial rankings.
Teams Likely to Build on 2024 Success
The first category focuses on teams that enjoyed unexpected success in the previous season and are likely to continue their upward trajectory. Historical data suggests that while many teams regress following a surprising season, some manage to sustain or even improve their performance.
The Arizona State Sun Devils are a prime example. After finishing the 2023 season with a disappointing 3-9 record, they rebounded to 11-3 in 2024, placing 35th in SP+ rankings. Analysts project them for approximately 8.4 average wins in 2025, bolstered by a returning core of players and a strong recruiting class.
Similarly, the Baylor Bears transformed from a 3-9 season to an 8-5 record. With an average of 6.7 wins projected for 2025, their offense, led by standout quarterback Sawyer Robertson, is expected to continue its high-scoring ways.
The Buffalo Bulls also demonstrated a remarkable turnaround, going from 3-9 in 2023 to 9-4 in 2024. With a projected 7.7 wins for the upcoming season, they aim to build on the momentum established under head coach Pete Lembo.
Other teams in this category include the Illinois Fighting Illini, who achieved their first ten-win season in over two decades, and the Miami Hurricanes, who saw their performance improve significantly under head coach Mario Cristobal. Both programs are expected to maintain their competitive edge as they enter the new season.
Teams Poised for Redemption in 2025
Conversely, several teams that experienced disappointing seasons in 2024 are likely to rebound in 2025. The trend indicates that a significant number of teams that regress typically bounce back the following year.
The Florida State Seminoles are a notable case. After a remarkable 13-1 season in 2023, they plummeted to a disappointing 2-10 record last year. Projections for 2025 suggest an average of 6.8 wins, as the team aims to leverage its returning talent and new coaching strategies.
The Michigan Wolverines also saw a sharp decline, finishing with an 8-5 record after going unbeaten the previous year. Analysts project them for about 9.8 average wins in 2025, depending largely on the performance of new quarterback Bryce Underwood.
Similarly, the Air Force Falcons are expected to recover from a 5-7 season, with projections indicating an average of 6.2 wins in 2025. Their late-season performance suggests potential for a strong rebound.
The Pittsburgh Panthers and Washington Huskies are also included in this group, with both teams aiming to improve upon their past performances. The Panthers, who finished with a 7-6 record last year, are projected to see modest gains, while the Huskies, despite their 6-7 record in 2024, are expected to show improvement with a more experienced roster.
As the 2025 college football season approaches, these teams will be watched closely to see if they can capitalize on their past performances and achieve their goals. The combination of returning talent, coaching strategies, and historical data will play crucial roles in shaping the landscape of college football in the coming year.
