As the conflict escalates in Gaza, Egypt faces increasing pressure to accept a large influx of Palestinian refugees. The Israeli military has intensified its ground invasion, confining Gaza’s population of approximately 2.2 million into a small area. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly criticized Egypt for not facilitating the exit of Palestinians seeking refuge. Meanwhile, former US President Donald Trump has suggested that both Egypt and Jordan should accept the entire population of Gaza, proposing a reconstruction plan for the enclave.
In response to these pressures, Egypt has crafted an Arab-funded initiative aimed at reconstructing Gaza, which received backing from the Arab League and support from the UK and Europe. However, this proposal was ultimately rejected by both Israel and the United States, prompting Egyptian leaders to adopt a firmer stance against Israel’s actions, which a recent report from the UN’s independent international commission of inquiry characterized as genocide.
Egypt’s opposition to the expulsion of Palestinians is grounded in several key concerns. First, Egyptian officials argue that facilitating such an exodus would equate to complicity in ethnic cleansing, a serious violation of international law. Forcing Palestinians out of Gaza would undermine any potential for Palestinian statehood, echoing the consequences of past displacements during the 1948 Nakba and the 1967 war. Many current residents of Gaza are descendants of those expelled from their homes decades ago. Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty emphasized this point in September, stating, “Displacement is not an option and it is a red line for Egypt, and we will not allow it to happen.”
In addition to legal and moral considerations, Egypt is also wary of the security risks associated with a sudden influx of refugees. The possible arrival of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, including potential Hamas fighters, poses a challenge for Egyptian authorities, who have been battling a local Islamist insurgency in the northern Sinai region. Following Israeli military actions in the area, Egypt has increased troop deployments along its border with Gaza, heightening tensions and complicating its security landscape.
The economic implications of accepting a large number of refugees are also significant. Egypt currently hosts around 9 million migrants, including approximately 150,000 Palestinians. The country’s economy is under strain, having recently expanded a loan from the International Monetary Fund to $8 billion to address pressing financial issues. An influx of refugees would not only strain resources but would also exacerbate existing economic challenges.
Relations between Egypt and Israel have become increasingly strained amid this crisis. President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, who previously had a cooperative relationship with Trump, has publicly criticized Israel’s actions. In July, he urged Trump to leverage his influence to halt the violence and facilitate humanitarian aid access to Gaza, denouncing Israel for what he described as a systematic war of genocide. During a recent summit in Doha, Sisi referred to Israel as “the enemy,” signaling a significant shift in rhetoric that could jeopardize longstanding peace agreements.
Egypt’s historical peace treaty with Israel, established in 1979, has bound the nation to complex obligations with both Israel and the United States. The annual aid of $1.5 billion from the US, primarily for military support, is contingent upon Egypt maintaining this agreement. Recently, tensions have risen further, with reports indicating that Israel may threaten to suspend natural gas imports from Egypt, a crucial energy source that meets approximately one-fifth of the country’s needs.
As Egypt navigates this precarious situation, it must weigh the potential fallout from rejecting the expulsion of Palestinians against the economic and security costs of accepting them. The evolving dynamics of the conflict present a challenging landscape for Egyptian leadership, which is grappling with domestic dissent while managing international expectations.
The implications of Egypt’s stance on the Palestinian refugee crisis will resonate throughout the region, influencing future diplomatic relations and the broader geopolitical landscape.
