Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered a stark warning at the United Nations headquarters in New York, stating that the world is currently experiencing the most destructive arms race in human history. Speaking during the UN’s 80th anniversary meeting, Zelensky highlighted the risks associated with the proliferation of drone technology and the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI). He cautioned that these developments could lead to the establishment of “dead zones” where no life exists, a scenario previously thought to exist only after a nuclear strike.
Zelensky described these future environments as areas “stretching for dozens of kilometres where nothing moves, no vehicles, no life.” He emphasized that the capabilities of AI could soon enable coordinated operations among swarms of drones, a concept that has been largely confined to science fiction until now. The Ukrainian military has already begun to implement elements of this technology, showcasing its potential in real-world applications.
Audrey Kurth Cronin, a security scholar at Carnegie Mellon University, noted that we are currently in an era of “open tech innovation.” This transformation allows non-state actors, including terrorists and criminal organizations, to carry out disruptive activities without needing state-level resources or expertise. Both Zelensky and Cronin argue that this shift necessitates new regulations and enhanced international collaboration to avert catastrophic outcomes. “We need to restore international cooperation – real, working cooperation – for peace and for security,” Zelensky stated, emphasizing the urgency of the situation.
Recent incidents have underscored the potential for drone technology to disrupt civil life. Just days before Zelensky’s remarks, drone activity forced multiple airports in Denmark to shut down. Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen described the incident as part of a “systematic operation,” with some reports suggesting possible involvement from Russia. Security experts have expressed growing concern over hybrid warfare tactics, which can escalate conflicts without crossing the threshold that leads to open war.
Zelensky’s warnings reflect a broader understanding among global leaders regarding the evolving nature of military conflicts. As incidents like the incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace illustrate, the world may be entering a period characterized by military-technological insecurity.
Deterrence Strategies in a New Era
Central to defense policy is the concept of deterrence, which aims to prevent adversarial actions through the threat of consequences. Historically, the possession of nuclear weapons has been a critical factor in maintaining relative peace among major powers. As global tensions escalate, deterrence strategies remain a primary consideration in discussions about NATO’s response to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
While Russian President Vladimir Putin has navigated actions cautiously to avoid direct confrontation with NATO, the use of drones and cyber tactics has become a preferred method for disrupting adversaries without provoking significant retaliation. This approach allows for the projection of power while minimizing the risks of escalation.
Experts suggest that three deterrence strategies could be instrumental in managing the new challenges posed by drone technology and AI. The first is deterrence by punishment, which involves responding to hostile actions in ways that outweigh their benefits. The second is deterrence by denial, making it increasingly difficult for adversaries to execute successful operations. The third is deterrence by entanglement, where the interconnected nature of modern society renders certain actions self-defeating.
These strategies may play a vital role in addressing the potential threats posed by AI-enabled drones. For instance, a recent trial by the British Army demonstrated the effectiveness of a radio wave weapon that successfully neutralized a group of drones. Such innovations may mitigate the risk of drone swarms becoming decisive instruments in future conflicts.
Despite the alarming prospects of a future dominated by drone technology and AI, there remain reasons for cautious optimism. Although disruptive events may become more frequent, the potential for international cooperation and innovative technological solutions could help to contain the worst outcomes.
However, the specter of unintended consequences looms large. The history of international relations is replete with instances where accidents and miscalculations have escalated into open conflict. As we navigate this new age of drone warfare and AI, the challenge will be to manage these risks effectively.
