The proposed AFL stadium at Macquarie Point in Hobart faces significant obstacles following a strongly negative report from the Tasmanian Planning Commission (TPC). Released today, the report recommends against the stadium due to concerns over its size, urban planning implications, and financial viability. Premier Jeremy Rockliff acknowledged the report’s findings, indicating that the decision now rests with the Tasmanian Parliament.
The TPC outlined three primary issues with the stadium proposal. First, the structure’s massive scale is described as a “singular, large, bulky monolith” that disrupts the natural landscape of Hobart, which is characterized by its mountain-river topography. The commission expressed concern that the stadium, projected to cost $1.13 billion, would overwhelm surrounding buildings and fail to integrate with the urban fabric.
Second, the commission criticized the project’s urban planning, stating that it does not promote diverse land use and would create an isolated precinct. Questions regarding public transport accessibility, pedestrian routes, and traffic management remain unresolved. The TPC highlighted potential traffic congestion, particularly given that the stadium is situated at the intersection of Hobart’s key arterial roads.
Third, the TPC raised alarms over the financial implications of the stadium. The upfront costs, projected debts, and limited economic returns would strain Tasmania’s budget. The report suggests that the total public loan could reach $1 billion upon construction completion, growing to $1.8 billion over the subsequent decade due to interest payments. Each Tasmanian household could bear a cost of approximately $4,100 to support the project, with an annual tax recovery need of $50 million.
Despite these challenges, the stadium project is not yet dead. In a shift of legislative power, the Tasmanian government previously modified laws to allow Parliament the final say on state-significant projects. Mr. Rockliff plans to introduce an “order” by the end of this year, incorporating feedback from the TPC along with conditions from previous enabling legislation. The Labor Party has expressed unconditional support for the stadium, although they intend to carefully consider the TPC’s report before committing further.
If the proposal advances, it will require approval in the lower house and support from three out of eight independent members in the upper house. Currently, some independents, including Meg Webb, Ruth Forrest, Mike Gaffney, and Rosemary Armitage, have voiced opposition, placing pressure on the government to lobby others for support.
The cost of the stadium has escalated sharply since its initial proposal. An estimate of $715 million in late 2022 rose to $775 million in 2024, then climbed to $945 million in May, and has now reached $1.13 billion. The TPC’s cost-benefit analysis indicates a dismal ratio of 0.45, meaning for every dollar spent, only 45 cents would be returned in economic benefits.
While the Tasmanian government has committed to capping its spending at $375 million, funding sources remain unclear. The Commonwealth has pledged $240 million, contingent on the development of housing alongside the stadium. The AFL has also agreed to contribute $15 million for the project, along with additional funding for grassroots football initiatives.
The TPC has raised further concerns regarding pedestrian safety and traffic management in the area surrounding the stadium. Plans for public transport improvements and the potential construction of park-and-ride facilities are still in early stages, with the government’s proposals seen as largely aspirational.
In terms of public sentiment, there is a lack of reliable polling data on the stadium’s support. A recent online survey by the Tasmania Devils indicated some backing among younger demographics, but polling analyst Kevin Bonham criticized the survey’s methodology. A more robust poll conducted by EMRS in February showed only 36 percent of respondents in favor, with 59 percent opposed.
As discussions continue, the future of Hobart’s proposed AFL stadium remains uncertain, with the TPC’s findings serving as a significant hurdle for the project’s proponents. The outcome will depend heavily on the political landscape and public opinion in the coming months.
