UPDATE: Australian livestock markets are experiencing unprecedented volatility, with cattle and sheep prices swinging to record extremes, according to a new report from Rabobank released on October 22, 2025. This urgent situation highlights significant challenges for livestock producers across the country.
The report, titled Managing Increased Volatility in Australian Livestock Markets, reveals that over the past five to ten years, price fluctuations have intensified dramatically. Cattle and sheep prices have repeatedly surged to new highs, exceeding previous records by approximately 20 percent, only to plummet to the lowest levels seen in a decade. This cycle of volatility poses serious risks for farmers and the broader agricultural economy.
Angus Gidley-Baird, senior animal proteins analyst at Rabobank, emphasized that while volatility has long been a feature of livestock markets, the current scale and frequency of these changes are alarming. “The increased level of volatility is not consistent with trends in other markets, suggesting unique factors are at play in Australia,” he stated.
As of 2023, prices have begun trending upward again, but producers remain on edge. The report outlines several key factors contributing to this volatility, including shifting industry structures, rising debt levels, and an unstable global trade environment.
Rabobank’s analysis indicates that the Australian livestock sector is more exposed than ever to larger geographical markets. The closure of small local saleyards and the rise of larger regional saleyards, along with online sales channels, have changed how prices are determined. “It’s no longer just local conditions that influence market behavior; broader market dynamics are now driving significant price movements,” Gidley-Baird noted.
Furthermore, the rapid flow of information has amplified market reactions, with producers responding to a myriad of signals—from weather forecasts to global trade headlines—compounding the volatility. “The speed at which information travels has created a more reactive market,” Gidley-Baird explained.
Adding to the complexity, a shift away from globalization and trade liberalization has further destabilized the livestock market. With global protein consumption rising and the presence of diseases impacting trade, producers are navigating an increasingly unpredictable landscape.
Rabobank’s report also highlights structural changes within the livestock industry. There has been a polarizing effect, with a growing number of livestock concentrated in either large or small operations, leaving medium-sized farms in a precarious position. This polarization affects decision-making processes and market participation, potentially leading to more pronounced market movements.
In light of these challenges, Gidley-Baird urges industry participants to adopt a strategic approach to managing volatility. “While volatility presents risks, it also offers opportunities. Producers must enhance their adaptability and resilience to navigate these uncertain times effectively,” he said.
Rabobank calls for embedding resilience into business planning, enabling producers to manage market fluctuations with greater confidence. As the livestock sector braces for continued volatility in the short to medium term, stakeholders must be prepared to respond to the rapidly changing market landscape.
This urgent report serves as a clarion call for Australian livestock producers to rethink their strategies in the face of an evolving and unpredictable market environment. Immediate action is essential to mitigate risks and capitalize on potential opportunities.
