Japanese politics is entering a turbulent phase as former foreign minister Toshimitsu Motegi has emerged as the first candidate to replace outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who resigned on October 1, 2024. Ishiba’s resignation follows a disappointing electoral performance that saw his ruling coalition lose its majority in both houses of parliament, a move prompted by rising public discontent over escalating living costs. In response, he has called for an emergency leadership election within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to address this crisis.
The LDP plans to conduct the leadership vote on October 4, 2024, setting the stage for a potentially pivotal shift in Japan’s governance. Following Ishiba’s resignation, Japan’s yen weakened, while stock prices rose, fueled by speculation surrounding the economic policies of possible successors. Analysts anticipate that candidates like fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi may advocate for increased government spending in the face of Japan’s substantial debt.
Motegi, who publicly declared his leadership intentions on Monday, emphasized the urgency for the party to unite and confront pressing challenges both domestically and internationally. “The LDP is facing its worst crisis since its founding,” he stated, underscoring the need for swift action to stabilize the party and government.
In addition to Motegi, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi is also expected to enter the leadership race, according to sources familiar with the situation. However, the primary competition appears to be between two notable figures: Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Both candidates are seen as significant contenders who would represent milestones in Japan’s political landscape; Takaichi could become the nation’s first female leader, while Koizumi would be the youngest prime minister in modern history.
Although neither Takaichi nor Koizumi has officially declared their candidacies, both finished as the second and third runners, respectively, in the last leadership contest held in September 2024. Political analyst Jeffrey Hall from Kanda University of International Studies noted, “All indications are that it will come down to them facing off against each other.”
Takaichi, in particular, is being closely watched due to her history of advocating economic policies that challenge the Bank of Japan‘s approach to interest rates. Her potential leadership could signal a shift in the nation’s economic strategy, particularly as investors speculate that the current political uncertainty might delay any monetary policy tightening.
In addition to her economic views, Takaichi’s nationalistic stance raises concerns about Japan’s relations with neighboring China. Known for her conservative positions, including support for revising Japan’s pacifist constitution, she frequently visits the Yasukuni shrine to honor Japan’s war dead, a site that is often controversial due to its association with Japan’s militaristic past. Earlier in 2025, she also visited Taiwan, suggesting the possibility of a “quasi-security alliance” among Taiwan, Japan, and other partners.
Hall pointed out that Takaichi’s hawkish profile regarding China might lead to a more hostile stance from Beijing. “China might take a more hostile stance towards Japan because she depicts herself as very much a hawk regarding China,” he said.
As the LDP prepares for its leadership election, the outcome will not only determine the future of Japan’s political dynamics but also have significant implications for economic policy and international relations, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.
