The 2025 WNBA season has experienced significant disruptions due to injuries, with a total of 117 players missing a combined 868 games. Among those affected are star athletes such as Breanna Stewart, Caitlin Clark, Napheesa Collier, Jonquel Jones, Jordin Canada, and Rhyne Howard. As the postseason approaches, the return of several key players could dramatically influence playoff outcomes for various teams.
As playoff intensity ramps up, the franchises with the best championship prospects, according to the Elo-based forecast model, include the Minnesota Lynx, Atlanta Dream, Las Vegas Aces, New York Liberty, Phoenix Mercury, and Indiana Fever. This article examines how the returns of these players could reshape team dynamics and enhance their chances of success.
Minnesota Lynx: Collier’s Impact on Championship Chances
Napheesa Collier made her highly anticipated return on August 24 after recovering from an ankle injury. During her absence, the Lynx managed a record of 7-3, demonstrating resilience despite her significant impact on the team’s performance. The team’s Simple Rating System (SRS) indicated a rating of +9.43 without Collier, which improved to +10.64 with her return. Adjusting for her absence, the Lynx’s championship chances rose from 58.8% to 68%. This boost underscores Collier’s status as a leading contender for the WNBA MVP award and her critical role in the Lynx’s success.
Atlanta Dream: The Return of Key Players
The Atlanta Dream have faced their share of injury challenges this season, particularly with Jordin Canada sidelined since August 13 due to a hamstring issue. Meanwhile, Rhyne Howard returned on August 10, contributing to a 7-4 record during her absence. The Dream’s SRS improved from +5.94 without their star players to +7.10 with their return, significantly enhancing their playoff prospects from 19.3% to 28%. If Canada can rejoin the lineup for the postseason, the Dream’s title chances could see further improvement.
Las Vegas Aces: Wilson’s Star Power
The Las Vegas Aces welcomed back A’ja Wilson on July 12 after she missed four games earlier in the season. Despite the Aces’ record of 1-3 during her absence, Wilson’s presence is invaluable; she adds an average of 5 Net Points per game. The team’s championship odds increased from 14.1% to 21% following her return, indicating her crucial role in their playoff aspirations.
New York Liberty: Stewart’s Return from Injury
The New York Liberty faced a significant setback with Breanna Stewart sidelined for 13 games due to a knee injury, which resulted in a 6-9 record in that span. Stewart returned on August 25, a moment that the Liberty hope will revitalize their season. Her absence accounted for an estimated 48.5 total Net Points of projected scoring margin, plummeting the team’s title chances from 33% to a mere 2%. With both Stewart and Jonquel Jones healthy, the Liberty could see a notable resurgence in performance as they aim to defend their championship.
Phoenix Mercury: Strengthening Their Lineup
The Phoenix Mercury benefited from the returns of Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Mack on June 11. Thomas’s absence resulted in a projected loss of 15.8 points of total scoring margin, highlighting her value as a perennial MVP candidate. Similarly, Mack’s defensive prowess significantly enhances team performance, as evidenced by her 23.3% defensive rebound rate. The Mercury’s title chances have improved from 3.6% to 7%, suggesting that their reinforcements will make a difference in the playoffs.
Indiana Fever: Clark’s Impact on Team Dynamics
Caitlin Clark, the Fever’s high-profile player, has faced challenges this season, missing a notable number of games since July 15. Despite her absence, the Fever have maintained an 8-5 record when she plays. However, Clark’s return is critical, as she has a significant impact on the team’s performance, with advanced metrics indicating that they are 7.5 Net Points better with her on the court. Although the Fever’s title chances remain low at 1.6%, Clark’s presence could provide the spark needed to elevate their competitive edge.
As the WNBA playoffs draw near, the potential for these returning stars to shift the balance of power cannot be underestimated. With many teams poised to welcome back key players, the upcoming games promise to deliver excitement and high-stakes action.
