Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under increasing pressure from his far-right coalition partners to annex parts of the occupied West Bank. Since returning to power in 2022, Netanyahu has navigated demands from his allies, who are urging a decisive move that could reshape Israel’s territorial landscape. As international scrutiny intensifies, key nations such as the United Kingdom, France, Canada, and Australia are calling for clarity on Israel’s plans regarding the territory that Palestinians envision as central to their future state.
The timing is critical, with elections scheduled for next year. A decision to annex, even partially, is likely to resonate positively with Netanyahu’s far-right supporters. Yet, it also risks straining Israel’s relationships with Arab nations and could lead to sanctions from European countries. This comes as Israel faces allegations of genocide in its ongoing offensive against Hamas in Gaza, claims the Israeli government denies.
In a recent meeting with Israeli diplomats, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar indicated that the government has yet to finalize its stance on annexation. However, the pressure from far-right factions is mounting. Discussions among government officials have revealed three potential options for annexation.
One prominent figure in these discussions, ultranationalist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, has publicly proposed a plan to annex 82 percent of the West Bank, framing it as a means to eliminate the prospect of an independent Palestinian state. Despite this, sources within the government suggest that the options being considered are less extensive than Smotrich’s proposal.
Some officials, including Sa’ar and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, have communicated to countries contemplating recognition of Palestine that Israel might annex Area C of the West Bank, which encompasses about 60 percent of the territory and remains under Israeli control. Dermer has also engaged with US officials about the possibility of annexing the Jordan Valley, a strategic area bordering Jordan. A third, more limited option involves annexing settlements close to the Green Line, the boundary separating Israel from the West Bank.
While such moves may satisfy Netanyahu’s domestic allies, they would likely provoke significant backlash from the international community. European diplomats have warned that punitive measures could be implemented if Israel proceeds with annexation. These could include trade restrictions with settlements, additional sanctions on violent settlers, and formal recognition of an advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice, which deemed Israel’s occupation illegal.
The potential fallout is particularly concerning for Netanyahu, given the US-brokered normalization agreements with four Arab nations in 2020, which he and former US President Donald Trump regard as major foreign policy successes. The hope had been to expand these agreements to additional countries, notably Saudi Arabia.
Following Smotrich’s proposal, the United Arab Emirates issued a stark warning, describing any move toward annexation as a “red line” that would jeopardize regional integration efforts. This prompted a reconsideration of the topic in discussions between Netanyahu and senior officials, according to insiders.
The implications of the UAE’s stance are significant. An Arab diplomat noted, “The Israelis are taking this seriously… but the government needs to do something for its base, or it will lose its raison d’être. It will be a tough decision for them.”
Some analysts argue that formal annexation may offer little benefit to Israel at this juncture, as the country has already engaged in what could be characterized as a de facto annexation through extensive settlement expansion and land seizures, actions which contravene international law. Ibrahim Dalalsha, head of the Ramallah-based Horizon Centre think tank, remarked that formal annexation would merely be “registering the birth of a child that has already been born.”
The role of the United States in this evolving situation remains critical. Historically, US administrations have opposed annexation and supported the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of a two-state solution. However, with Trump’s return to power, his administration has exhibited a more lenient approach toward Israel’s territorial ambitions. Mike Huckabee, Trump’s ambassador to Israel, has hinted at a lack of opposition to the annexation idea, stating, “It’s not our job to dictate to [Israel].”
Looking ahead, Amir Avivi, founder of Israel’s Defence and Security Forum, anticipates that Israel may pursue annexation within the next two years, contingent upon coordination with the United States. He indicated that if Trump determines that normalizing relations with the Arab world takes precedence, this could influence Netanyahu’s decisions, stating, “It doesn’t matter how much pressure the right-wing parties put on Netanyahu. The only pressure he will fear is from President Trump.”
As the debate around annexation unfolds, the global community will be closely monitoring Israel’s actions and the implications for regional stability and international relations.
