Youth crime rates in numerous developed countries have experienced a significant decline since the 1990s, according to a comprehensive international study. Criminologists Dietrich Oberwittler from the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Crime, Security and Law and Robert Svensson from the University of Malmö conducted an extensive review of empirical research on youth crime. Their findings are based on both official crime statistics and surveys that gauge unreported crime among young people.
The study, which incorporates data from an ongoing international survey of health behaviors among youth in 36 countries that began in 2002, demonstrates a clear trend: youth crime has been decreasing since the 1990s. Initial evidence from police data indicates this shift in the United States, followed by similar patterns in European nations, including Germany, Switzerland, England, and Wales. After 2015, many of these countries saw a stabilization in the downward trend.
Despite the overall decline, not all types of offenses have seen equal reductions. Property crimes have decreased more sharply than violent crimes in several countries. Additionally, the gap in crime rates between genders has narrowed. Historically, boys exhibited higher crime rates than girls; however, the propensity for boys to commit crimes has diminished more rapidly in recent years.
Oberwittler and Svensson caution that the latest data suggests the trend may be stagnating or even reversing in some areas. They note, “The post-pandemic data are still incomplete. We cannot yet form a conclusive picture of the past three to five years.” Nonetheless, they emphasize that even minor upticks in crime cannot overshadow the significant declines observed over the previous decades.
The researchers also examined the underlying causes of this decline, drawing from studies in criminology, psychology, and addiction research. Their analysis reveals that improved living conditions for young people play a crucial role. In essence, today’s youth have more engaging activities than committing crimes.
A noteworthy factor contributing to this trend is the decrease in risky behaviors, particularly alcohol consumption, which is often linked to criminal activity. The study highlights a shift in family dynamics, with stronger parent-child relationships noted in recent decades. Children today experience greater supervision and control from their parents compared to 20 years ago. Interestingly, this increased oversight does not necessarily correlate with parents spending more physical time with their children. Instead, technological means, such as maintaining regular contact via smartphones, have become pivotal in fostering these relationships.
Education has also gained prominence in the lives of young people. They now spend more time in school, valuing education more than in previous generations. This shift has resulted in less unstructured time spent with peers, further contributing to the decline in youth crime.
While the rise of digital media has been suggested as a factor in increasing loneliness among young people, the empirical findings regarding its effects remain inconclusive. “Many questions about recent developments cannot be answered on the basis of the available empirical evidence,” note Oberwittler and Svensson. They emphasize the need for further research to explore the implications of digital media on youth crime trends.
In summary, the international study reveals a profound and ongoing decline in youth crime across developed nations, driven by improved living conditions, stronger family ties, and changing social dynamics. While recent data hints at minor fluctuations, the overall trajectory remains a notable success story in contemporary crime prevention.
