East Timor, officially known as Timor-Leste, will become the 11th member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) during the upcoming leaders summit from October 26-28, 2023. This milestone marks the culmination of a decades-long aspiration for the nation, which applied for ASEAN membership in 2011 and was granted observer status in 2022. Analysts view this accession as a significant political achievement, although the anticipated economic benefits remain uncertain.
Located in Southeast Asia, East Timor is the region’s poorest nation, with a population of approximately 1.4 million people. The country, slightly larger than Qatar, gained independence from Indonesia in 2002 following a United Nations-monitored referendum. It shares a border with Indonesia’s East Nusa Tenggara province.
The leadership of East Timor, including President Jose Ramos-Horta and Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao, has long envisioned ASEAN membership. Ramos-Horta, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, first brought up the idea in the 1970s while East Timor was still a Portuguese colony. His dream will be realized as East Timor is formally welcomed into ASEAN, chaired by Malaysia.
Economic Challenges and Opportunities Ahead
With an economy valued at nearly USD 2 billion (approximately AUD 3.1 billion), East Timor is working to diversify its financial reliance on diminishing oil and gas reserves. While analysts are optimistic about the potential political legitimacy that comes with ASEAN membership, concerns persist regarding East Timor’s status as the smallest economy in the group. ASEAN’s total gross domestic product stands at USD 3.8 trillion, with Indonesia contributing USD 1.4 trillion.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim highlighted that when ASEAN was formed, many member countries were also economically disadvantaged. He expressed hope that the community can extend its support to East Timor, emphasizing the benefits that come from collaboration within ASEAN.
ASEAN Secretary General Kao Kim Hourn stated that joining the bloc would enhance East Timor’s influence in international forums and provide a network of diplomatic and economic support.
Ramos-Horta characterized the membership as a long-held dream, stating, “The road to ASEAN is more difficult than the road to heaven.” This sentiment reflects the nation’s perseverance in overcoming numerous challenges to achieve this significant milestone.
Concerns Over Economic Integration
Despite the promise of political legitimacy, experts like Parker Novak from the International Republican Institute caution that the nation’s low productivity and governance quality may limit the potential economic advantages of ASEAN membership. Guteriano Neves, an economic development researcher based in the capital, Dili, voiced concerns that East Timor may struggle to compete effectively within the ASEAN market. He noted that membership might compel the government to implement necessary institutional reforms to attract foreign investment.
“Economically speaking, that is the hard question that I think we haven’t really found the answer to,” Neves remarked. He emphasized the importance of addressing these challenges to fully realize the benefits of joining ASEAN.
As East Timor prepares to officially join ASEAN, the nation stands at a pivotal moment. The formal accession is expected to bring both opportunities and challenges as it navigates its role within a diverse and economically robust region.
