As the festive season approaches, major European football leagues are taking a brief respite. This period provides a timely opportunity to assess the current state of competition across Europe. The focus is on the top teams in the continent’s Big Five leagues, particularly on Bayern Munich and Arsenal, who are setting the standard in both domestic and European competitions.
To evaluate performance, an advanced statistical measure known as “adjusted goal differential” has been utilized. This metric combines 30% goal differential and 70% expected goals (xG) differential from matches played with both teams at full strength. The results illustrate who is in the best form as 2025 unfolds.
Bayern Munich: Pacing the Bundesliga and Beyond
Over the past two months, Bayern Munich has played 13 matches, accruing 32 points with an impressive average of 2.46 points per game, and an adjusted goal differential of +1.36. They are on track to challenge their own record for the most points in a Bundesliga season, a remarkable 91 points achieved during their 2012-13 Champions League title campaign. Despite a recent draw against Mainz and a loss to Arsenal in the Champions League, they remain formidable, winning 22 matches across all competitions, 16 of which came by multiple goals.
Key players include Harry Kane, who has netted 29 goals, and Michael Olise, contributing 10 goals and 11 assists. With the return of Alphonso Davies and a potential comeback for Jamal Musiala in January, Bayern is well-positioned to maintain its dominance.
Arsenal: Close Contest at the Top
Arsenal mirrors Bayern’s strong performance, also securing 32 points from 13 matches at a rate of 2.46 points per game, with an adjusted goal differential of +1.23. However, the team has recently seen a dip, dropping seven points in their last seven Premier League games. This has allowed rivals such as Manchester City and Aston Villa to close the gap in the Premier League standings.
Despite these challenges, Arsenal’s wins against significant opponents, including a 4-1 victory over Tottenham and a 3-1 win against Bayern, reflect their potential to excel. Their upcoming fixtures include matches against Brighton and Liverpool, which could be pivotal in maintaining their league lead.
Manchester City: Consistent Threat
In third place, Manchester City recorded 33 points over 14 matches, averaging 2.36 points per game with an adjusted goal differential of +1.09. Although their defensive performance has raised concerns—allowing 10 goals in four matches—they rebounded with a dominant 13-1 goal tally in their last five games, including a critical away win against Real Madrid.
As City continues to challenge for the Premier League title, their upcoming schedule features matches against Nottingham Forest and rivals Manchester United.
Other Contenders: Juventus, RB Leipzig and PSG
Further down the rankings, Juventus has turned a corner since hiring Luciano Spalletti, registering 27 points from 13 matches under his guidance. The team is climbing the Serie A standings, bolstered by key performances from Kenan Yildiz and midfielders Weston McKennie and Manuel Locatelli.
In Germany, RB Leipzig remains a surprising top team despite inconsistent results, winning six matches with a +24 goal differential, showcasing their attacking prowess. Meanwhile, Paris Saint-Germain is gradually finding its form under Luis Enrique, currently in the sixth position with 23 points from 11 matches.
Looking Ahead
As January approaches, the competition intensifies, with crucial matches lined up in both domestic leagues and the Champions League. The performance of these top teams will be closely monitored as they aim for glory in their respective competitions. The next few weeks will be critical in shaping the narrative of the 2025 season, with the potential for surprises and standout performances.
In summary, as the calendar flips, Bayern Munich and Arsenal continue to lead the charge in European football, but with formidable challengers on their heels, the race for the title remains wide open.
