The newly convened parliament, set to be opened by Governor-General Sam Mostyn on August 1, 2023, presents a range of challenges for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and opposition leader Sussan Ley. As the government prepares to navigate its agenda, the opposition’s early performance will be under scrutiny.
Albanese has been cautious in mobilizing the new parliament, a decision that some critics interpret as an attempt to limit the presence of opposition members and senators who may disrupt legislative business. While accountability is a cornerstone of democratic governance, the practical implications of this ideal often complicate proceedings. During the initial fortnight of the session, attention may shift from the government to the opposition, as Ley faces her own set of pressures.
Ley has managed to avoid major missteps in her early weeks as leader. Nevertheless, the presence of critics, like Angus Taylor, who narrowly lost the leadership ballot, looms large. With Taylor now serving as the Coalition’s defence spokesperson, his recent comments advocating a joint security commitment with the United States regarding Taiwan have attracted attention. Ley must carefully manage her team’s messaging, particularly on sensitive issues such as foreign and defence policy, to avoid exposing the Coalition to criticism.
The opposition is presented with a significant opportunity following the inadvertent leak of a Treasury brief, which suggested the need for tax increases and spending cuts under the re-elected government. This information could prove advantageous for the Coalition, providing a platform to question the government’s economic management. Ley’s performance as leader will be critical, but the role of shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien is equally vital. O’Brien must swiftly establish his credibility against Jim Chalmers, who has effectively prepared for this legislative session.
O’Brien has wisely recruited Steven Hamilton, an experienced economist who previously taught at George Washington University and contributed to The Australian Financial Review. This addition may bolster the Coalition’s economic strategy as the government introduces a variety of legislation in the coming weeks. Albanese has promised to prioritise reducing student debt by 20% and to address issues related to penalty rates. Additionally, the government is compelled to introduce a bill aimed at revoking funding from childcare centres that fail to meet safety standards, following troubling revelations of abuse.
The dynamics of the government are particularly relevant as the parliament approaches the August 19-21 productivity roundtable. Observers are eager to see how the relationship between Albanese and Chalmers develops, especially with their differing ambitions. While both leaders agree that delivering on election promises should be the baseline for their second term, there are concerns about the scope of their plans. Chalmers appears cautious, worried that Albanese’s ambitions may be limited, while Albanese fears Chalmers may overreach.
Negotiations between Chalmers and the Greens regarding proposed changes to superannuation tax arrangements are also anticipated. The government plans to increase taxes on balances exceeding $3 million and to tax unrealised capital gains. The Greens, however, are advocating for a reduction of the threshold to $2 million, indexed for inflation. A compromise is likely to be reached, especially with the new leadership under Larissa Waters, who has expressed a desire to be constructive while holding the government accountable.
The Senate landscape appears less complex than in previous terms, largely due to the Greens holding the balance of power on contested legislation. This development may frustrate other Senate crossbenchers, particularly as Albanese’s staffing decisions appear arbitrary. Notably, Pauline Hanson‘s One Nation has doubled its representation to four senators but without additional staff support, a situation that underscores the need for a more equitable staffing allocation system.
In the House of Representatives, the Teal independents maintain a strong presence, but their influence remains limited. One new Teal member, Nicolette Boele, who recently won the seat of Bradfield from the Liberals, faces uncertainty as the Liberals challenge her narrow victory by just 26 votes. The outcome of this challenge will be determined by the Court of Disputed Returns, with three potential outcomes: confirmation of the result, a reversal in favour of the Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian, or a fresh election.
The Liberals’ decision to contest the result carries risks. Should a new election be called and the Liberals lose, it could destabilise Ley’s leadership and further complicate the opposition’s ability to challenge the government effectively.
As the new parliament begins its session, the performance of both the government and opposition will be closely watched, setting the course for the months ahead.
