The Tasmanian state election held recently has resulted in the Liberals winning a majority of seats, yet the Labor Party may still have an opportunity to form a government. With 63% of enrolled voters counted, projections indicate that the Liberals received 39.7% of the statewide vote, a 3.0% percentage increase since the previous election in March 2024. Labor followed with 25.7%, down 3.1%, while the Greens garnered 14.1%, a slight increase of 0.2%.
Under Tasmania’s proportional Hare-Clark system, which allocates seats based on the proportion of votes received, the final distribution is expected to be complex. The state returns 35 members to its lower house, with a quota set at 12.5% of the vote, or one-eighth.
The latest projections from The Poll Bludger suggest that the Liberals have achieved just under four quotas in Braddon, over three in both Bass and Lyons, and more than two in Clark and Franklin. This indicates that the party is likely to secure 14 seats, with potential for more depending on remaining votes. Labor is projected to win around 10 seats, as their quotas hover around two in each electorate.
The Greens are expected to secure at least five seats, having gained substantial support in Clark, Franklin, Bass, and Lyons. Among the independents, environmental advocate Craig Garland is poised for re-election in Braddon with 0.8 quotas, while left-wing independent Kristie Johnston in Clark is well positioned with 1.3 quotas.
Despite the Liberals winning the most seats, the dynamics suggest that Labor, along with the Greens and left-leaning independents, could potentially form a coalition government. This outcome relies heavily on cooperation between these parties, as projected splits indicate a right-leaning majority in Bass, Braddon, and Lyons, but a left-leaning advantage in Clark and Franklin.
The election results remain tentative, as many pre-poll and postal votes have yet to be counted. The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has indicated that postal votes, which are expected to slightly favor the Liberals, will not be counted until next week.
A notable discrepancy in polling data prior to the election was highlighted by a late YouGov poll conducted from July 7 to 18. This poll suggested the Liberals would receive just 31% of the vote, while Labor was projected at 30%. The results indicate that the poll underestimated the Liberals’ support by approximately 14 percentage points.
In a related political development, the Liberals are contesting the narrow victory of Teal candidate Nicolette Boele in the federal Bradfield seat, which was decided by a margin of just 26 votes. The matter has been referred to the High Court, and Boele will remain in her position until the court’s decision is made.
Overall, the Tasmanian election results underscore a significant shift in the political landscape, with implications for future governance and party dynamics in the region. The possibility of a Labor-led coalition, despite the Liberals’ seat advantage, reflects the complexities of Tasmania’s electoral system and the importance of strategic alliances in forming a government.
As the vote counting continues, the full impact of remaining ballots will become clearer in the coming days, shaping the path forward for Tasmanian politics.
