The world continues to grapple with its reliance on Russian nuclear fuel, as the country remains the dominant supplier of enriched uranium, accounting for approximately 40 percent of the global market. Many nations find it challenging to reduce their dependency on Russia for this critical resource, essential for powering nuclear energy projects. Despite efforts to seek alternatives, the landscape for enriched uranium supply differs significantly from that of other energy sources like oil and gas, where options are more plentiful.
In June 2023, the European Commission announced that it would not impose limits on imports of Russian enriched uranium, contrasting with its proposal to potentially ban Russian gas imports by 2027. The EU’s energy commissioner, Dan Jorgensen, acknowledged the complexity surrounding nuclear fuel dependency, stating, “The question about nuclear is, of course, complicated, because we need to be very sure that we are not putting countries in a situation where they do not have the security of supply.”
According to the think tank Bruegel, in 2023, Russia supplied 38 percent of the EU’s enriched uranium and 23 percent of its raw uranium. The EU’s expenditure on Russian nuclear fuel amounted to around $1.18 billion in 2024. Five EU nations—Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, and Slovakia—operate Russian-designed reactors that are tailored to run on Russian fuel. While all except Hungary have initiated agreements with alternative suppliers, transitioning away from Russian uranium is expected to require several years.
The global demand for enriched uranium is projected to rise significantly in the coming decades, as various countries invest in expanding their nuclear capabilities. A report from the World Nuclear Association (WNA) in September indicated that worldwide uranium demand could increase by nearly a third to around 86,000 tonnes by 2030 and reach 150,000 tonnes by 2040. To meet this escalating demand while reducing reliance on Russian uranium, nations will need to invest in faster permitting processes, mining advancements, and new uranium exploration.
The WNA report also highlighted a potential supply gap, predicting that uranium production from existing mines could be halved between 2030 and 2040. As countries invest in new nuclear reactors and alternative technologies like small modular reactors (SMRs), the availability of fuel may fall short without substantial investment in new uranium production capabilities.
Kazakhstan has emerged as a significant player in uranium production, contributing about 40 percent of the global supply, while Russia continues to excel in enrichment capacity. The annual growth rate for the uranium market stands at approximately 1 to 2 percent, making it a complex environment for stakeholders. Boris Schucht, CEO of uranium enrichment firm Urenco, noted, “It’s a small, growing market. It’s a limited market, [that’s] not very big, and it’s very expensive to develop technologies in this market.”
In response to the shifting dynamics, Urenco terminated all existing contracts with Russian suppliers in 2022 and is working to enhance its capacity for Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) across its facilities in the United States, the Netherlands, Germany, and the U.K. The U.S. has notably ramped up its uranium mining activities, increasing production from 22,680 kg in 2023 to 307,082 kg in 2024, alongside launching extensive exploration drilling.
Under the Biden administration, the U.S. Department of Energy initiated efforts to bolster domestic LEU production. In December 2023, President Biden announced the selection of six companies that will be contracted to procure LEU, promoting the development of new uranium production in the United States.
Meanwhile, the U.K. is set to become the first European nation to produce advanced nuclear fuel, with plans to establish Europe’s first high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) facility. The U.K. government has allocated $267.1 million to Urenco for this venture, which is expected to begin fuel production by 2031. This facility will be ready for both domestic use and export within the next decade.
As nations pivot towards a nuclear revival, the complexities of producing the necessary uranium will require addressing stringent regulations and existing production limitations. Significant investment in research, development, and new production facilities will be crucial to support the future of global nuclear energy ambitions.
