Polling data reveals a significant disparity between Americans’ perceptions of inflation and actual inflation rates. As inflation continues to dominate political discourse, particularly under the leadership of former President Donald Trump, many voters believe inflation is much higher than the official figures indicate. This divergence in expectations has grown notably since Trump assumed office, reflecting broader economic anxieties.
According to surveys conducted by the University of Michigan, respondents predicted an inflation rate of 2.8% in December 2024, closely aligning with the actual rate of 2.7% at that time. However, by May 2025, just five months into Trump’s second term, public expectations surged to an estimated inflation rate of 6.6%, despite the actual figure dropping to 2.4%. This stark contrast highlights a rising concern among consumers about future price increases.
Factors Influencing Inflation Expectations
The surveys posed a crucial question: “By about what percent do you expect prices to go up/down on average during the next 12 months?” This query reveals the public’s sentiment regarding inflation and its potential impact on consumer behavior and economic growth. Actual inflation, denoted by the red line in accompanying charts, reflects the annual changes in the consumer price index since Biden’s inauguration in January 2021. Following a sharp impact from the pandemic, inflation rates have generally been on a decline since early 2022, albeit with a modest uptick beginning in January 2025.
Several specific factors contribute to heightened inflationary expectations. Food prices have consistently risen, particularly following the pandemic. Data indicates that while broader inflation has been decreasing, food prices have continued to climb, making this essential commodity a focal point of public concern. Additionally, the rapid increase in housing costs, which began after the pandemic and persisted under the Trump administration, has placed home ownership out of reach for many Americans.
Economic uncertainties further exacerbate these expectations. Notably, Trump’s ongoing efforts to remove Lisa Cook, a governor of the Federal Reserve, are currently entangled in legal challenges. The Federal Reserve plays a critical role in managing inflation through interest rate adjustments, and instability within this institution can heighten public apprehension regarding future economic conditions.
Impact of Tariffs and Fiscal Policies
Tariffs introduced by the Trump administration on imported goods likely contribute to rising consumer prices. Tariffs function as a tax on imports, directly affecting the pricing of goods available to American consumers. Coupled with a recent decline in the value of the US dollar—falling from approximately 98 euro cents in January to about 85 euro cents by August 2025—these factors increase the cost of goods in American stores.
Additionally, Trump’s recently passed “big beautiful bill,” which extends tax cuts from his first term and reduces welfare spending, is projected by the Yale University Budget Lab to contribute an estimated $3 trillion to national debt between 2025 and 2034. This financial maneuvering raises concerns about the government’s ability to manage deficits without resorting to printing more money, which can further spur inflation.
The intertwining of inflation expectations with political consequences is significant. Public perceptions of the president’s handling of inflation closely correlate with overall approval ratings. As illustrated by data from YouGov for the Economist, Trump’s overall job approval has mirrored his ratings for managing inflation. Both metrics have exhibited a downward trend, suggesting that public dissatisfaction regarding inflation could hinder Trump and the Republican Party’s prospects in the upcoming midterm elections.
In conclusion, the growing disconnect between perceived and actual inflation rates under Trump’s administration reflects broader economic uncertainties and public sentiment. As inflation continues to be a key concern for Americans, the implications for political stability and economic policy remain profound. Efforts to address inflation perceptions will play a critical role in shaping the economic landscape as the nation approaches pivotal elections.
