Prime Minister Anthony Albanese returned to Australia this week amid ongoing negotiations for the COP31 climate summit, vying against Turkey to secure hosting rights. In an interview with The Guardian, Albanese expressed optimism, stating, “A clear majority of nations want Australia’s bid, but it’s clear also that this is a complex situation and we’ve got to try and resolve it.”
The bid for COP31, the world’s largest annual climate gathering, is set against a backdrop of geopolitical maneuvering. If successful, the summit would take place in Adelaide in late 2024, marking Australia’s largest diplomatic event to date. Currently, Australia has the backing of 23 out of 28 countries in the “Western European and Others group,” which includes Turkey. However, without a consensus, the conference may shift to Bonn, Germany, known for its capacity to host interim climate meetings.
Negotiations intensify as both countries remain steadfast. At the UN General Assembly last month, Albanese attempted to engage with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan but was unsuccessful. Nonetheless, Chris Bowen, Australia’s Minister for Climate Change and Energy, engaged with Turkey’s Climate Minister Murat Kurum and the First Lady, Emine Erdoğan, who plays a crucial role in Turkey’s bid. Kurum indicated that Turkey is exploring “innovative solutions” to the deadlock, although no specific proposals have been detailed.
Australia’s strategy to persuade Turkey to withdraw its bid could involve various diplomatic incentives. One potential offer is hosting rights for a “pre-COP” meeting, which typically sees high attendance. For instance, the UK co-hosted a youth and climate summit ahead of COP26 in Glasgow in 2021. However, Turkey is likely seeking a more prominent political gathering, which Australia would be reluctant to relinquish.
Other avenues for negotiation could include diplomatic concessions unrelated to COP, such as supporting Turkey’s aspirations for other UN roles or providing development aid. This tactic proved effective in the lead-up to COP26 when the UK proposed a package of incentives to Turkey, including a Turkish investment conference in London and backing for Turkish candidates in international positions. Another option could see Australia act as the official host while allowing Turkey to facilitate certain related meetings.
Australia’s bid for COP31 carries significant implications for its global standing. The country is actively seeking to present itself as a leader in climate action, particularly in collaboration with Pacific nations. Pacific leaders have recently urged Turkey to “clear the way” for the Australia-Pacific bid, emphasizing the importance of hosting the summit in their region to highlight their priorities and attract international financing for clean energy transitions.
Successful hosting of COP31 could enhance Australia’s reputation as a responsible global citizen and a climate leader. It presents an opportunity to broker pledges that align with Australian interests, such as promoting sustainably processed “green iron” and attracting investment for clean energy initiatives. However, Australia’s track record as one of the world’s largest fossil-fuel exporters, coupled with ongoing approvals for high-emission projects like the North West Shelf gas project, may come under scrutiny if the bid is successful.
In conclusion, the outcome of Australia’s negotiations with Turkey will be crucial not only for the future of COP31 but also for Australia’s climate credibility on the international stage. As discussions continue, the global community watches closely to see how these diplomatic efforts unfold.
