A recent synthesis by researchers at the University of Gothenburg reveals that individuals tend to perceive their own risk of being affected by climate change as significantly lower than that of others. This perception, which affects the willingness to take necessary climate action, may hinder efforts to address climate-related challenges effectively.
The meta-analysis examined data from 83 studies involving over 70,000 participants across 17 countries. The findings indicate that climate-related risks are consistently underestimated. In fact, 65 percent of participants rated their own risk as lower than that of others. According to Magnus Bergquist, Senior Lecturer in Psychology at the University of Gothenburg, “The studies we have compiled do not measure people’s actual risk. We cannot determine whether individual risk assessments are overly optimistic, but at the group level, we clearly see that the majority perceive their own risk as lower than that of others.”
Reference Groups Shape Risk Perception
A key aspect of the study focused on how individuals determine their risk by comparing themselves to others. The results suggest that the choice of reference group is pivotal. Risk assessments are most distorted when individuals compare themselves with “general others,” such as fellow citizens or humanity as a whole, particularly in regions with lower overall climate risk. This tendency was observed across Europe, the United States, and Asia, with the most significant discrepancies noted among Europeans.
The analysis highlighted that 81 of the 83 studies found participants typically rated their own risk as lower than that of others concerning both extreme weather events and broader climate-related risks. “We found the effect in all but two studies, where participants were farmers in China and South Korea who had been directly exposed to the consequences of climate change. This suggests that direct experience reduces the effect,” explained Pär Bjälkebring, also a Senior Lecturer at the University of Gothenburg.
Implications for Climate Action
The overall results from this meta-analysis suggest a limited and flawed understanding of climate-related risks, which may contribute to delays in implementing necessary actions. Even when individuals acknowledge the real dangers posed by climate change, many perceive these threats as primarily affecting others. “This psychological bias can, in the worst case, slow down both climate adaptation and mitigation efforts,” Bergquist stated.
The study, titled “Meta-analytical Evidence of a Self-Other Discrepancy in Climate Change-related Risk Perceptions,” was published in the journal Nature Sustainability. The findings underscore the importance of addressing these cognitive biases to foster greater awareness and urgency regarding climate change impacts.
