New projections indicate that New Zealand may experience a wetter summer, which could provide unexpected relief for individuals suffering from pollen allergies. According to research led by a professor in Physical Geography at Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington, the country is likely heading into a neutral or La Niña summer, resulting in increased rainfall in the northern and eastern regions.
While many might view a wet summer unfavorably, for the one in five New Zealanders affected by hay fever or asthma, this change could be beneficial. For years, speculation surrounded how the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts pollen levels, but recent data has provided clarity. New Zealand does not routinely monitor airborne pollen, making this research particularly significant.
During the 2023/24 summer, which is expected to be predominantly dry due to the El Niño pattern, researchers monitored pollen levels daily in Auckland. This effort, conducted from atop the War Memorial Museum, marks the first comprehensive pollen monitoring in the city this century.
The research team compared their findings with results from two previous studies conducted nearly four decades ago. Notably, one of those studies took place during a strong La Niña season in 1988/89, while the other occurred during a neutral summer. These comparisons revealed that the pollen season during the La Niña year was significantly shorter and less severe than in the other two seasons, a finding that aligns with established expectations.
In 1988/89, the grass pollen season lasted just 41 days, while the other seasons experienced longer durations due to more moderate rainfall that facilitated grass growth and pollen production. In stark contrast, the grass pollen season in 2023/24 extended to 77 days, nearly double that of the La Niña summer.
Despite the limited dataset, which spans only three seasons over 35 years, the consistent patterns observed provide valuable insights into how varying weather conditions influence pollen production and dispersal. Understanding these patterns holds significant implications for allergy management, as it enhances the ability to predict pollen levels and helps inform treatment and avoidance strategies.
Sophisticated predictive models can forecast shifts in La Niña and El Niño phases months in advance. With evidence now indicating their impact on pollen levels, allergy sufferers can be better prepared for the severity of upcoming pollen seasons. This variability underscores the necessity of ongoing pollen monitoring to grasp the causes and effects of seasonal allergies more comprehensively.
Moreover, climate change contributes to rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and increased variability, all of which may further affect pollen levels in New Zealand. Looking ahead, projections suggest that Auckland could face increasingly drier and warmer springs and summers, potentially leading to higher pollen concentrations in the air and posing additional challenges for those with allergies.
In summary, while a wetter summer may initially seem unappealing, the implications for allergy sufferers could be significant. The continued research and monitoring of pollen levels will be crucial in navigating the complexities of seasonal allergies in New Zealand’s changing climate.
