A series of drone incursions across Europe is raising alarms and drawing accusations towards Russia. Experts indicate that these incidents, which have surged over the past month, primarily target NATO member nations supporting Ukraine. The situation escalated on September 10, when 19 suspected Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace amid an ongoing attack on Ukraine. This prompted Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to describe it as “the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II,” labeling the act a blatant aggression by Russia.
Since that initial incident, reports indicate at least 39 drone-related occurrences across 12 European countries, extending from Norway in the northwest to Belgium and the Netherlands in the west, according to research by the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), corroborated by the ABC. The frequency and locations of these incidents suggest a coordinated effort to intimidate nations that are strengthening their defenses against Moscow.
Targeted Nations and Incidents
Countries directly affected by these drone incursions include Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Finland, France, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, and Romania. Notable incidents include:
In Belgium, on October 3, drones flew over the Elsenborn military base, prompting an investigation by the Defence Ministry. This marked the first-known drone incursion in Belgium’s airspace.
Denmark experienced significant disruptions on September 22, when drones were detected over Copenhagen Airport, halting flights for nearly four hours. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen characterized the incidents as intended to “disrupt and create unrest.” Following that, additional drone sightings occurred at various Danish military bases and airports.
Estonia’s airspace was violated on September 19 by three Russian MiG-31 military jets, resulting in a NATO response that involved escorting the aircraft out of Estonian airspace. The Defence Forces noted the violation was unprecedented, with the jets operating without flight plans or communication with air traffic control.
In Germany, Munich Airport experienced closures on October 2 due to drone sightings, affecting nearly 3,000 passengers. Authorities initiated searches for the drones but were unable to identify their origin. Similar incidents plagued the airport two days later, leading to more cancellations and diversions.
In Poland, the September 10 incident was compounded by further incursions, leading to the activation of Article Four of NATO’s treaty, allowing Poland to consult with other member nations regarding security concerns.
Russia’s Alleged Objectives and NATO’s Response
The Kremlin’s motivations for these drone flights appear to revolve around gathering intelligence and testing the resolve of NATO nations. CEPA researcher Federico Borsari suggested that monitoring military bases and airports could yield valuable information for Russia.
Analysts, including Malcolm Davis from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, argue that these incursions aim to undermine public trust in NATO and instill confusion among member states. “This is about sowing uncertainty and trying to erode the confidence and resolve of NATO to stand up to Russia,” Davis stated.
In response, NATO has intensified its military presence in Eastern Europe. The alliance launched the “Eastern Sentry” operation in September, deploying assets from at least nine member nations to areas experiencing drone incursions. This includes the deployment of fighter jets and anti-drone missile systems across affected nations.
On October 4, European Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius proposed the establishment of a “drone wall” along the EU’s eastern border to mitigate future threats. Additionally, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, emphasized the need for Europe to adapt to what she termed “hybrid warfare.” She stressed that these drone incidents reflect a coherent campaign to disrupt European unity and weaken support for Ukraine.
The Kremlin firmly rejected allegations of involvement in the drone incursions, with President Vladimir Putin accusing Europe of creating hysteria to justify its military spending. He remarked, “If we are fighting with the entire NATO bloc, we are moving, advancing, and we feel confident.”
The ongoing drone activity highlights a dangerous escalation in European security tensions, as nations navigate the complexities of military posturing in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape. As the situation develops, the potential for further incidents remains high, prompting calls for enhanced defensive measures and international cooperation among NATO allies.
