The race for leadership of the federal Liberal Party is heating up, with Andrew Hastie positioning himself as a contender amid speculation about the party’s future. Liberal sources suggest that the dynamics surrounding Hastie may differ significantly from those faced by Julie Bishop in 2018, when her bid for leadership was undermined by a lack of support from her Western Australian colleagues.
Bishop, who received only 11 votes—one from herself and another from Malcolm Turnbull—was not backed by any of her WA counterparts. This raises questions about whether Hastie can expect a different outcome. As he and Angus Taylor vie for the top position, the focus is on whether Hastie can count on support from his home state.
While the sentiment among WA federal Liberal MPs appears to favour Hastie, the political landscape remains complex. Current leader Peter Ley is reportedly facing dwindling support within the party. If a vote were to occur, it is anticipated that Ley would secure backing from only Melissa Price, the federal member for Durack. This situation is particularly precarious for Ley, who narrowly won the leadership from Taylor last May by just four votes.
A critical development this week saw David Littleproud, leader of the National Party, declare that there would be no Coalition under Ley’s leadership. This announcement follows controversy surrounding the demotion of three National Party MPs—Bridget McKenzie, Susan McDonald, and Ross Cadell—who opposed the Liberal stance on legislation concerning hate groups and radical preachers. Ley’s decision to accept their resignations from the shadow cabinet has further complicated the relationship between the parties.
The internal strife poses significant challenges for the already vulnerable Opposition. With an election looming in just over two years, the next leader of the Federal Liberal Party must focus on unifying the Coalition. Basil Zempilas, the WA Liberal leader, has effectively strengthened the Liberal-National alliance in the state, a model that may be necessary on a national scale. Zempilas and Shane Love, the WA National Party leader, have even agreed in principle to a coalition ahead of the 2029 state election, distancing themselves from the ongoing turmoil in Canberra.
Love’s recent statement emphasized the effectiveness of the collaboration in Western Australia, noting that “our parties are working very effectively together.” He clearly seeks to insulate WA conservatives from the impact of the federal party’s struggles.
The likelihood of a messy leadership challenge against Ley seems low. Observers suggest that, should a change occur, the party might present Ley with an offer to step aside rather than engage in a contentious contest. As Hastie and Taylor reach out to gauge support over the weekend, the hope is that they can collectively navigate the complex political waters.
In a spirit of cooperation, some suggest that Hastie and Taylor might even come together for a casual meeting, perhaps over a sausage and a beer, to discuss their paths forward. The future of the Liberal leadership remains uncertain, but the stakes are undeniably high as the party grapples with its identity and direction in the months ahead.
