The federal Coalition in Australia has taken steps to strengthen its unity following a significant decline in polling numbers. Liberal leader Sussan Ley and Nationals leader David Littleproud announced a last-minute agreement aimed at stabilizing their partnership, which could potentially deter a leadership challenge from Angus Taylor, the opposition’s defence spokesman. This development comes as the latest Newspoll indicates a troubling drop in the Coalition’s primary vote to just 18%, with the Liberal Party at 15% and the Nationals at 3%.
The Newspoll, released on the evening of March 1, 2024, revealed that Ley’s net satisfaction rating has plummeted to -39%, a decline of 11 points since January. Meanwhile, One Nation has surged to 27%, marking a significant increase of five points in the last three weeks. In contrast, the Labor Party’s primary vote stands at 33%, reflecting a one-point gain since the previous poll. If an election were held now, Labor, led by Anthony Albanese, would likely expand its already substantial majority, with Albanese holding a commanding 19-point lead over Ley as the preferred prime minister.
Before the poll results were released, sources within the Liberal Party indicated that the figures would heavily influence any potential challenge from Taylor this week. Ley’s recent negotiations with the Nationals have mitigated some of Taylor’s previous grounds for contesting her leadership, particularly her ability to re-establish the Coalition. Yet, insiders suggest that if Taylor does not act swiftly, he could lose the momentum he has been building.
The Coalition’s recent turmoil began when three Nationals frontbenchers defied party lines to oppose the government’s anti-hate legislation, leading to Ley’s decision to sack them for breaching shadow cabinet solidarity. Both Ley and Littleproud faced substantial pressure to reconcile after a prolonged period of discord that lasted over two weeks. Ley had previously signalled intentions to form an all-Liberal frontbench if the Coalition did not reunite before parliament resumed.
During a joint news conference in Canberra, Ley showcased a strong performance, but the tension between her and Littleproud was palpable, as he appeared disengaged while she spoke. Reports suggest that the two leaders have a strained relationship, with instances of heated exchanges during their negotiations.
The agreement reached includes a stipulation that all shadow ministers will sign an agreement to uphold shadow cabinet solidarity. A “decisions register” for the shadow cabinet will be established, ensuring that neither party can overturn decisions without consensus. This aspect of the deal has raised concerns among some Nationals members, who feel that Littleproud has compromised their party’s autonomy.
Ley and Littleproud issued a joint statement confirming that for a cumulative six-week period from the time of their split, all Nationals, including senators, will not hold shadow ministerial roles. Each shadow minister will return to their previous positions on March 1, when current acting arrangements will conclude. To maintain joint representation and accountability during this interim period, the leaders of both parties will participate in key meetings.
Looking ahead to the parliamentary session, sources indicated that the Coalition would operate as an integrated block, a departure from the previous week when Nationals members sat separately on the crossbench. Ley emphasized the need for unity, stating, “The overwhelming majority of my party room knows that the Coalition is stronger together.”
Littleproud reiterated the principled basis for the recent split, focusing on the rushed nature of the government’s proposed laws regarding freedom of speech. He stressed, “This wasn’t about personalities, this was about principles,” reinforcing the importance of thorough discussions on substantive issues.
As the Coalition navigates these challenges, the coming weeks will prove crucial for Ley’s leadership and the stability of the partnership between the Liberal and National parties.
