UPDATE: New insights from Atradius reveal alarming risks for fuel-importing economies, emphasizing a significant shift in the global energy landscape. According to their latest Energy Outlook released on March 10, 2026, the anticipated energy transition is stalling, which could spell economic trouble for nations reliant on imported fuels.
The report highlights that oil and gas demand is projected to peak later than previously forecast, with fossil fuel prices remaining elevated for an extended period. This new reality threatens the economic stability of many countries that have long depended on a downward trend in energy prices to alleviate financial pressures.
Atradius identifies 63 countries where net fuel-import bills exceed 4% of GDP, with many being emerging markets already grappling with substantial current-account deficits. The escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, have starkly underscored these vulnerabilities.
Niels de Hoog, Senior Economist at Atradius, stated,
“With the energy transition slowing and the Middle East war unfolding, many emerging economies are once again at the mercy of global oil price swings. The structural decline in fuel dependence is still far too modest to shield them.”
The report further warns that improvements in energy efficiency—historically a key factor in reducing reliance on fossil fuels—are likely to weaken. This trend leaves countries increasingly exposed to the fluctuations of higher fuel prices. Progress in renewable energy adoption remains insufficient to significantly lower fossil fuel demand, as electrification in heavy transport, industry, and heating is advancing too slowly.
The implications are dire: Atradius forecasts that more than half of the analyzed fuel-importing nations may face a deterioration in their current-account positions by 2035. The situation is expected to be particularly severe for vulnerable economies such as Tunisia, Pakistan, and Lebanon, which are already under economic strain.
To combat these escalating risks, Atradius advocates for urgent resilience strategies. Countries must accelerate investment in domestic renewable energy and electrification efforts while enhancing export capacity, competitiveness, and reducing reliance on non-energy imports.
De Hoog emphasizes,
“The slowdown in the global energy transition should be seen as a clear warning. Fuel-importing economies face rising external vulnerabilities as energy prices remain higher for longer.”
As the global energy landscape shifts, the call for immediate action is louder than ever. Fuel-importing nations are urged to adapt swiftly to secure their economic futures.
For further insights, visit Atradius at https://group.atradius.com and read the full report. The urgency for change has never been more critical, as the world watches these economies grapple with rising challenges.
