UPDATE: As earnings season heats up, Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) is grabbing attention with a projected 5% upside in share price, according to analysts at Macquarie. The firm has reaffirmed its “Outperform” rating and set a target price of $5.19, significantly above the current share price of $4.93.
This news comes as Telstra has seen a remarkable 22% increase in share value since the start of 2025. This surge reflects investor confidence amid a competitive telecommunications landscape.
Macquarie’s forecasts for FY25 indicate steady but modest growth for Telstra, expecting the following key financial metrics:
- Revenue: $23.7 billion (up 1%)
- Underlying EBITDA: $8.66 billion (up 5%)
- Underlying NPAT: $2.18 billion (up 2%)
- Dividend per share: 18.5 cents (up 3%)
Analysts note that mobile subscriber growth remains a focal point, with an estimated 45,000 net additions in postpaid subscribers for the second half of FY25. The impact of recent price hikes in mobile plans will be critical in determining whether Telstra can sustain its growth trajectory, as consumers may switch providers in response to rising costs.
Macquarie anticipates that Telstra will maintain its 41% market share, supported by strong brand loyalty among users who view Telstra as a trusted provider. The firm projects a 3.6% growth in postpaid Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) during the second half of FY25, as competitors also engage in price increases rather than aggressive discounting.
While earnings growth may not be explosive, Telstra is executing its long-term strategy effectively, making it an appealing option for income-focused investors. With stable dividends and modest growth potential, Telstra could shine in a high-volatility market.
Investors should closely monitor Telstra’s performance this earnings season as Macquarie’s analysis positions the telecommunications giant as a quiet outperformer in the ASX. As more details emerge, the market’s reaction will be telling—stay tuned for further updates.
