UPDATE: The world is on a rapid path to breach the crucial 1.5C climate goal, as confirmed by the latest annual report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), released today. The alarming findings indicate that due to insufficient action on greenhouse gas emissions, the planet is expected to exceed this critical threshold within the next decade.
The Emissions Gap report emphasizes that current efforts by nations to cut emissions are falling dramatically short, making it clear that exceeding the 1.5C target set in the 2015 Paris Agreement is now inevitable, at least temporarily. Lead author Anne Olhoff states, “Deep emissions cuts now could delay when the overshoot happens, but we can no longer totally avoid it.”
This urgent situation adds pressure ahead of the upcoming COP30 climate summit, where countries will address strategies to accelerate efforts against climate change. The report warns that if current pledges are met, the world could face an unsettling rise of 2.3-2.5C in global temperatures, significantly higher than the 1.5C target.
Despite some progress since the signing of the Paris Agreement, when projections indicated a potential 4C rise, the reality remains grim. Global greenhouse gas emissions surged by 2.3% in 2024, reaching 57.7 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent. UNEP highlights that current policies are leading to an even more alarming trajectory of 2.8C warming, emphasizing the need for immediate and impactful action.
In September, China, the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide, announced plans to reduce emissions by 7-10% from their peak by 2035. However, analysts point out that while these targets are often exceeded, they still may not be aggressive enough to mitigate the upcoming climate crisis.
The implications of exceeding the 1.5C threshold are dire. Current scientific assessments indicate that such a rise would more than double the number of people exposed to extreme heat, with devastating effects on ecosystems. For instance, it is anticipated that 70% of coral reefs would be destroyed at 1.5C, but nearly 99% would perish at 2C.
As world leaders prepare for the crucial discussions at COP30, the urgency for enhanced climate action has never been more pronounced. The time for decisive action is now, and the stakes could not be higher for both the planet and humanity.
Stay tuned for more updates as this story develops, and understand how these critical climate issues impact our future.
