EU climate ministers have reached a tentative agreement on a revised climate target for 2040, significantly diluting the original goal in order to secure consensus ahead of the UN COP30 summit in Brazil. After over 18 hours of intense negotiations, ministers from EU member states informally backed a compromise to reduce emissions by 90 percent from 1990 levels by 2040, but with provisions that allow for adjustments that could undermine this target.
Ministers are expected to reconvene later today, November 1, 2023, to formalize the agreement. Although a few countries, including Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary, have expressed their opposition, they lack the necessary support to halt the agreement. According to EU diplomats, the deal requires endorsement from at least 15 member states to be fully ratified.
A spokesperson for Denmark, which is currently holding the EU’s rotating presidency, stated, “We believe we have the basis for a political deal.” The revised target allows nations to purchase foreign carbon credits to account for up to 5 percent of the emissions reduction goal. This effectively lowers the required cuts from European industries to 85 percent, shifting some responsibility to foreign nations to offset Europe’s emissions.
The draft agreement also indicates that the EU may consider permitting countries to buy international carbon credits for an additional 5 percent of their emissions reductions in the future, potentially reducing their domestic obligations even further. The urgency to finalize a new climate goal stems from the upcoming COP30 summit, where Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, will meet global leaders on November 6.
Spanish Environment Minister Sara Aagesen emphasized the stakes at play, saying, “We have a lot at stake. We are risking our international leadership, which is fundamental in this extraordinarily complicated context.”
In an effort to address the concerns of skeptical member states, the draft compromise includes delaying the launch of a new EU carbon market by one year, pushing it to 2028. Initially, the European Commission had proposed a 90 percent emissions reduction target, allowing for a maximum 3 percent share of carbon credits. The softening of this target reflects growing resistance to the EU’s ambitious climate agenda from both industries and some governments, who argue that the continent must balance its climate commitments with pressing issues in defense and industry.
As the EU works to finalize its position, the implications of this agreement will be closely watched at the COP30 summit, where global commitment to climate action is more crucial than ever.
