As Japan approaches its general election on October 29, 2023, the political landscape is shifting dramatically. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is poised to secure a significant mandate, potentially jeopardizing Australia’s delicate strategy regarding its largest trading partner, China. Just five months ago, Defence Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong emphasized Australia’s strong alignment with Japan. However, Takaichi’s hawkish stance on China could create friction in bilateral relations.
Takaichi’s Rise and Political Posture
Sanae Takaichi is a formidable figure in contemporary Japanese politics. As a self-described ultra-nationalist and disciple of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, she has introduced a vigorous leadership style to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Following her historic appointment as Japan’s first female prime minister last October, Takaichi quickly gained popularity, with some dubbing her the “Iron Lady” of Japan.
Her energetic persona has resonated with the public, capturing the attention of younger demographics eager to embrace her unique fashion and strong work ethic. Takaichi’s unconventional path includes a youthful stint in a “Bosozoku” biker gang and a passion for heavy metal music, which adds a rebellious twist to her political image.
In a notable display of diplomacy, Takaichi recently jammed with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, highlighting her commitment to fostering relationships in a region marked by historical tensions. Yet, her assertive foreign policy quickly drew the ire of Beijing. Takaichi’s warning in parliament that Chinese military action in Taiwan could necessitate Japan’s intervention was met with harsh criticism from China, including threats and economic sanctions.
Impact on Australia-China Relations
The longstanding animosity between Japan and China, rooted in historical grievances from Japan’s wartime occupation, complicates Australia’s position. While Japan has traditionally avoided explicit commitments regarding Taiwan to manage Chinese resentment, Takaichi’s bold statements may disrupt this cautious approach. She is aligned with Abe’s vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific, advocating for a united front against an increasingly assertive China.
Japan has made significant strides in bolstering its military capabilities, including plans for hypersonic missiles and increased defense spending, aimed at reaching 2 percent of GDP by June 2026. Takaichi’s expedited timeline for military enhancement indicates a departure from Japan’s historically pacifist stance.
Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison welcomed Japan’s military assertiveness during his tenure, even as relations with China soured after Australia called for an inquiry into the origins of COVID-19. The Morrison government faced economic repercussions from Beijing, yet simultaneously strengthened ties with Japan through reciprocal access agreements, enhancing military cooperation.
The current Labor government under Anthony Albanese is attempting to reset relations with China by reopening dialogue and negotiating the removal of tariffs. However, Takaichi’s hardline approach poses a challenge to this strategy. In 2023, Japan’s then-ambassador to Australia, Shingo Yamagami, warned that Labor’s attempts at diplomacy could be perceived as appeasement.
The outcome of Takaichi’s potential victory could test Labor’s confidence in its bilateral relations with Japan. A firm stance from Tokyo on Taiwan would necessitate a reevaluation of Australia’s diplomatic approach, particularly as it seeks stability with China while navigating its alliance with Japan.
As the election date approaches, the implications of Takaichi’s leadership could reverberate beyond Japan’s borders, shaping the geopolitical landscape in the Asia-Pacific region. The interplay between Takaichi’s assertive policies and Labor’s aspirations for a balanced relationship with China will be closely scrutinized in the coming months.
