OPEC has announced the initiation of an independent review to assess the production capacity of its member states, as confirmed by Kuwait’s Oil Minister Saad Al Barrak on Wednesday. This marks a significant move for the organization, which seldom engages external auditors to evaluate its internal metrics. The decision comes amid intensifying quota negotiations in preparation for 2026.
During a press conference in Kuwait City, Al Barrak stated that the independent consultant will provide a “technical, neutral assessment” of each country’s sustainable output. This process aims to establish future production baselines that accurately reflect actual capacity, rather than relying solely on self-reported figures. While the specific consulting firm has not yet been identified, discussions are reportedly progressing within OPEC’s secretariat.
The initiative was first mentioned in a May OPEC+ communiqué and has been propelled by ongoing pressure from members like the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, which have made substantial investments in field expansions and seek increased production quotas. Conversely, other nations, such as Angola, which recently exited the group, have faced difficulties in meeting existing targets.
Analysts suggest that a reliable third-party assessment could help resolve long-standing disputes regarding capacity estimates, which have historically impacted OPEC+ cohesion and market confidence. According to Reuters, the independent study will measure the “maximum sustainable production” for each member, taking into account upstream investment levels, reservoir integrity, and available spare capacity.
The final report is expected to be presented before OPEC+ finalizes new quotas for 2027. Al Barrak emphasized Kuwait’s support for what he termed “transparent calibration” among members to enhance both credibility and stability within the organization. As reported by Asharq Al Awsat, the consultancy work is anticipated to commence prior to the next ministerial meeting in Vienna.
This initiative occurs in the context of broader warnings from OPEC regarding the risks of underinvestment, which could threaten future supply security. OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais reiterated earlier calls for significant capital investment, stating that sustained flows into upstream oil and gas are “essential to avoid volatility.” He highlighted the need for approximately $12 trillion in cumulative investment through to 2045 to maintain stability in the market.
The steps taken by OPEC signal a commitment to enhancing transparency and accountability among its member nations, aiming to bolster market confidence and ensure long-term sustainability in oil production.
