Thailand’s political landscape has undergone a significant shift with the election of a new prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, following the ousting of Paetongtarn Shinawatra by the Constitutional Court. This change comes amid ongoing instability and power struggles that have long characterized Thai politics.
On March 15, 2024, the Constitutional Court removed Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, from office over alleged ethical violations. This swift decision prompted a reconfiguration of the ruling coalition, leading to Anutin’s election. Known for his role in legalizing medicinal cannabis, Anutin secured the position with unexpected support from the progressive People’s Party, a move that has raised questions about the future direction of governance in Thailand.
Anutin now leads a minority government, which faces immediate challenges due to conflicting ideologies between the conservatives and their progressive allies. The arrangement is precarious, as it relies on the backing of the People’s Party, which has demanded commitments toward constitutional reform. This coalition agreement necessitates a snap election within four months, contingent on the resolution of specific constitutional issues.
The political landscape has been heavily influenced by the actions of the Constitutional Court, which has a history of intervening in political affairs. Since its establishment in 1997, it has previously ousted five prime ministers associated with the Shinawatra family and dissolved numerous political parties aligned with pro-democracy movements. The recent dismissal of Paetongtarn is a continuation of this trend.
In the wake of the coalition’s formation, the People’s Party emerged as a crucial player in the political arena. In exchange for its support of Anutin, the party has outlined several conditions, including the dissolution of parliament within four months, the organization of a potential referendum on constitutional amendments, and collaboration on drafting a new constitution. Notably, the People’s Party has opted not to take ministerial positions, allowing it to field candidates in the anticipated snap election.
Adding to the uncertainty, Thaksin Shinawatra, who has been in self-imposed exile since 2008 to avoid legal troubles, left Thailand again shortly after his daughter’s removal. His departure has raised eyebrows, especially given that he was recently acquitted of charges related to the country’s strict lèse-majesté law. Thaksin’s return was seen as a potential reconciliation between the Shinawatras and the conservative factions, but his exit underscores the ongoing tensions.
With the current political dynamics, the People’s Party is positioned to potentially win the upcoming election. However, whether its leader will be allowed to assume the role of prime minister remains uncertain. The conservative forces continue to view the party’s progressive policies as a threat, raising concerns about their willingness to allow a genuine transfer of power.
The possibility of military intervention looms, a scenario that has played out repeatedly in Thailand’s troubled political history, which has seen at least 12 coups in the past century. Although the Second Army commander has publicly stated that the military has no plans for a coup, many citizens remain skeptical given the country’s track record of political upheaval.
As Thailand navigates this tumultuous period, the future of its democracy and the potential for meaningful constitutional reform are at a critical juncture. The coming months will be pivotal in determining whether the agreements reached between Anutin Charnvirakul and the People’s Party will translate into lasting changes or if the entrenched conservative powers will once again assert their dominance.
