The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) concluded last week on a down note, falling by 0.5% to close at 8,666.9 points. As the Australian share market approaches Monday’s opening, it is anticipated to dip further, reflecting a cautious market sentiment despite gains on Wall Street.
ASX 200 Expected to Decline
Current indicators suggest that the ASX 200 will open around 5 points lower, according to the latest SPI futures. In contrast, major indices in the United States experienced positive movements on Friday, with the Dow Jones rising 0.5%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.4%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.25%. Notably, these futures do not account for the recent trade agreement signed between the United States and the European Union over the weekend, which may influence market sentiment.
Impact of Falling Oil Prices
Energy stocks, including Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS), could face challenges as oil prices slipped late Friday. According to Bloomberg, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell by 1.3% to US$65.16 per barrel, while Brent crude decreased by 1.1% to US$68.44 per barrel. This decline marks a three-week low, primarily driven by concerns surrounding economic performance in both the United States and China.
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) is also in the spotlight today after analysts from Bell Potter issued a sell rating on the stock, deeming it overvalued. The firm adjusted its price target to AU$7.65 per share, up from a previous target of AU$6.05. The analysts noted, “While we appreciate the business and its management, we believe significant optimism is already reflected in the current stock price.” They emphasized that Lynas stands well-positioned to benefit if market conditions for neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) improve.
Gold Prices and Quarter Updates
Gold shares listed on the ASX, such as Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), are likely to experience a subdued start as well, following a drop in gold prices. As reported by CNBC, gold futures fell by 1.1% to US$3,392.5 per ounce, driven by a strengthening US dollar that has prompted traders to sell.
Additionally, Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) will attract attention as it prepares to release its quarterly results. Bell Potter expects the company to report its fourth-quarter results for the fiscal year 2025 on July 28, 2025. The market will focus on cost performance and the construction status of its IX columns 4-6. Bell Potter views Boss Energy favorably within the uranium sector due to its potential leverage to spot prices and lower risk associated with its satellite deposits.
As the ASX 200 opens on Monday, investors will be closely monitoring these developments, particularly the effects of fluctuating commodity prices and key corporate updates.
