At a recent defence gathering in Sydney, Acting Prime Minister Richard Marles stated that Australia currently faces the most complex and threatening strategic landscape since the end of the Second World War. This assertion, while significant, has sparked debate among experts about its validity and implications for Australia’s foreign policy.
In an interview with The Issue podcast, Professor Michael Wesley, an international relations expert from The University of Melbourne, challenged the notion that today’s geopolitical climate is uniquely perilous. He described this perspective as “presentism,” the tendency to view current times as the most dramatic. Wesley argued that the global tensions of the 1960s may have been just as severe, if not more so.
Trump’s Impact on International Relations
Wesley highlighted that significant changes in international relations have occurred since Donald Trump took office in January 2017. He suggested that recent events indicate a reversion to an older form of international relations reminiscent of the period before the end of the Cold War. A notable example is the recent military parade in Beijing, where President Xi Jinping showcased China’s military might. Wesley interpreted this display as a signal that America is no longer the sole superpower in global affairs.
According to Wesley, the leaders who attended Xi’s parade reflect a shifting worldview among nations. “What we saw in that parade was the end of the world that acknowledged the dominance of the United States,” he stated, emphasizing that countries are increasingly recognizing the importance of cultivating strong relations with both China and Russia.
Wesley pointed out that while these countries may appear united, the alliances are not without complexities. For instance, he remarked that “India and China are never going to be allies,” despite public appearances suggesting otherwise. Their ongoing border disputes and competition for regional influence contribute to a lack of trust between the two nations.
Rethinking Australia’s Security Relationships
This evolving international landscape raises critical questions for Australia, particularly regarding its longstanding alliance with the United States. Wesley urged a reevaluation of Australia’s security relationship, suggesting that it may not be feasible to unconditionally support US military actions in Asia. “Do we really want to consider ourselves as automatically at war if the United States chooses to go to war in Asia?” he asked, advocating for a more independent stance.
While Wesley did not advocate for scrapping the AUKUS pact—an agreement aimed at providing Australia with nuclear-powered submarines—he emphasized the need for a national conversation about its implications. “I think it’s time to have a genuine national conversation about the pluses and minuses of the AUKUS package,” he stated, noting that such discussions have not been adequately publicized or debated.
The insights from Wesley’s analysis underscore the necessity for Australia to reassess its defence strategies and foreign alliances in light of shifting global dynamics. As the international order evolves, so too must the strategies employed by nations like Australia to navigate their security interests effectively.
