A recent border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand has intensified political dynamics within both nations. The skirmish, which escalated following a deadly shootout on May 28, 2023, has prompted Cambodian leaders to leverage the situation to solidify their power while creating significant ripples in Thai politics.
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, son of former Prime Minister Hun Sen, announced on July 1, 2023, the activation of a dormant law that requires men aged 18 to 30 to serve in the military. This decision coincides with plans to increase defense spending, aimed at modernizing military equipment. The Cambodian government presents these measures as necessary for national security, framing them as a response to perceived aggression from Thailand, the more dominant neighbor.
The Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), which has ruled the country for decades, appears to be using these tensions to reinforce its grip on power. Analysts highlight that the military serves not merely as a defense force but as a mechanism for the CPP to reward loyalty and maintain control. Gordon Conochie, an analyst at La Trobe University, noted, “The armed forces are certainly not an independent, neutral body… It’s a way of the CPP rewarding loyalty.”
This militaristic posture follows a significant constitutional amendment approved by a CPP-dominated national assembly, allowing the government to strip citizenship from individuals deemed “treacherous.” This move raises concerns among critics who fear it may target political dissidents, many of whom are currently in exile in Thailand. Hun Sen himself indicated that without the recent border incident, such measures would not have been deemed necessary.
The ongoing dispute centers around the ownership of various sites along the border, particularly the Emerald Triangle. This area has historical significance and is marred by past violence. Following the May incident, Cambodia petitioned the International Court of Justice to determine sovereignty over the Emerald Triangle and adjacent ancient temples, while Thailand favors a bilateral resolution.
As the geopolitical landscape shifts, the implications extend to Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Once a rising star in Thai politics, her position now faces uncertainty due to her handling of the border situation. Following a controversial phone call with Hun Sen that leaked to the media, criticism erupted regarding her perceived subservience to the Cambodian leader, causing a rift within her governing coalition. The Bhumjaithai Party, a key ally, withdrew support, jeopardizing the government’s stability.
The fallout from this political turmoil has led to significant legislative setbacks, including the withdrawal of a contentious bill aimed at allowing casinos in large entertainment complexes. With Bhumjaithai no longer part of the coalition, the government is now reconsidering its stance on cannabis legislation, potentially reversing the decriminalization that had allowed 17,000 licensed cannabis parlors to operate since 2022. Many of these businesses are now facing an uncertain future.
Amid these developments, Paetongtarn was suspended from office on July 1 as the Constitutional Court reviews allegations that her phone conversation with Hun Sen undermined national interests. This suspension, combined with an investigation by Thailand’s anti-graft body, complicates her prospects for reinstatement.
In response to the escalating tensions, Paetongtarn has accused Cambodia of harboring criminal networks. Despite her attempts to distance herself from Hun Sen, experts suggest that Cambodia is deeply entwined with organized crime, fueled by systemic corruption and complicity among political elites. Jacob Sims, a visiting fellow at Harvard University, recently highlighted the nexus of trafficking and cybercrime in Cambodia.
As confrontations between soldiers from both nations continue near disputed border sites, the potential for a serious escalation looms. Cambodia’s leadership, particularly Hun Sen, appears to be capitalizing on nationalist sentiments to divert public attention from economic challenges, especially as the country braces for the impact of U.S. tariffs.
This unfolding situation not only poses risks of military conflict but also heralds significant political shifts in both Thailand and Cambodia. With both leaders navigating the precarious terrain of nationalism and political survival, the international community watches closely, aware that the implications of these border tensions extend far beyond their immediate geographical boundaries.
