Polls reveal that Palestinians are considering three main candidates for the presidency of a potential future Palestinian state: a prisoner in Israel, a political exile in Qatar, and a declining politician. According to a May survey by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR), the candidates are seen as pivotal figures in a region yearning for self-determination and statehood. Each candidate will face substantial challenges, particularly as the political landscape remains fraught with divisions.
The current political framework suggests that if a peace deal is reached between Hamas and Israel, a transitional committee comprising “qualified Palestinians and international experts” would govern Gaza temporarily. This interim arrangement could pave the way for a presidential election, with the future leader expected to head the Palestinian Authority (PA). The PA currently has limited control over parts of the West Bank, while Hamas retains power in the Gaza Strip.
Polling data indicates that Marwan Barghouti, who is serving multiple life sentences in an Israeli prison, is the most popular candidate, garnering 50 percent support among those surveyed. Khaled Meshaal, a Hamas leader living in exile, follows with 35 percent, while the current president, Mahmoud Abbas, received a mere 11 percent. Abbas recently announced that his deputy, Hussein al-Sheikh, would assume leadership if he could no longer serve, but the PA has faced criticism for its effectiveness and failure to hold promised elections.
Barghouti has emerged as a unifying figure in Palestinian politics, having gained recognition as an influential leader during protest movements against Israel in the early 2000s. Amin Saikal, an emeritus professor at the Australian National University, described Barghouti as a rare figure capable of bridging political divides within Palestine. “He possesses credibility and popularity that could unite various factions,” Saikal stated, noting Barghouti’s potential to advance plans for a two-state solution.
Imprisoned since 2002 for orchestrating attacks against Israelis, Barghouti’s status complicates his potential candidacy. While he remains a symbolic leader, questions about his physical fitness to lead arise due to his long incarceration. His cousin, Mustafa Barghouti, could emerge as a credible alternative should Marwan be deemed unfit for leadership.
Khaled Meshaal, the second-favorite candidate, faces significant barriers to leadership. Although popular, Meshaal is unlikely to assume the presidency, as Israel would likely arrest him if he returned to Palestinian territories. “Hamas will remain a powerful movement, but its governance role is uncertain,” noted Ian Parmeter, a research scholar at the Australian National University. A Hamas spokesperson indicated the group’s willingness to disarm if a Palestinian state is established, yet achieving this remains a complex issue.
Abbas’s low ranking in the polls reflects his challenges as a leader under difficult circumstances, including Israeli occupation. At 89 years old, concerns about his age and health further complicate his position. Saikal emphasized the necessity for the PA to rejuvenate its leadership and regain public support to play a meaningful role in future governance.
Public sentiment indicates a desire for a leader who can navigate the “enormous challenges” facing a future Palestinian state, including reconstruction efforts in Gaza and the need for unity among Palestinian factions. Saikal argues that the next leader must effectively engage with Israel and address internal divisions, particularly as tensions persist over settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
The future of Palestinian governance will require strategic leadership and international support, particularly from key figures like Donald Trump. As the political landscape evolves, the choices made by Palestinians in upcoming elections may significantly shape their quest for autonomy and statehood.
