UPDATE: Former top US defence adviser Abraham Denmark demands that Australia, the UK, and the US maintain their commitment to the AUKUS security pact while outlining a clear plan for nuclear-powered submarines amid escalating tensions with China. This critical call comes as the Trump administration conducts a review of the pact, raising urgent questions about the future of US-Australia defence cooperation.
In a jointly authored report for the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Denmark warns that abandoning AUKUS would significantly undermine US capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region, stating, “Should AUKUS fail or be scrapped, the United States would become less capable… its international credibility would be dramatically undercut.” With China intensifying military simulations around Taiwan, Denmark stresses that a robust commitment from Australia is essential to deter aggression.
The US Department of Defence announced a review of AUKUS in June 2023 to ensure alignment with the President’s America First agenda. Concerns are mounting over whether the US can produce sufficient Virginia-class submarines to meet its own needs while fulfilling commitments to Australia by the early 2030s. Denmark highlights that while Australia has allocated billions to support the US defence industrial base, the potential for a Trump-led exit from AUKUS looms large.
Denmark emphasizes the necessity for Australia to clarify its commitment to support the US in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, a scenario that remains a priority for Chinese President Xi Jinping. He poses a critical question: will American-made submarines sold to Australia be available during a conflict in the Indo-Pacific, or will Australia choose to withhold them?
The current Albanese government faces pressure to address these sensitive issues, as discussions on defence spending continue. Denmark suggests that a contingency planning process, involving both US and Australian military strategists, could help address sovereignty concerns while ensuring that Australian submarines are ready for deployment if needed.
As Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles meets with US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth in Washington, the stakes are higher than ever. Their previous encounter highlighted a demand for Australia to increase its defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, a request the Albanese government has firmly resisted.
Denmark’s urgent appeal for a “concrete commitment” underscores the gravity of the situation as Australia navigates its defence strategy in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. The implications of AUKUS extend far beyond military collaboration; they resonate with national security and international alliances.
The outcomes of these discussions could reshape the future of US-Australia relations and the stability of the Indo-Pacific. As tensions with China escalate, the world watches closely for developments.
