Apple is on track to reclaim its position as the world’s largest smartphone manufacturer, a title it has not held for more than a decade. This shift is largely fueled by a substantial increase in iPhone sales, particularly in China, following supportive measures from the Chinese government. The resurgence highlights a notable challenge for Samsung Electronics, which is experiencing intensified competition from both Apple in the premium market and Motorola in the budget sector.
According to Counterpoint Research, the surge in demand is linked to the latest iPhone lineup and a growing number of consumers looking to upgrade devices initially purchased during the COVID-19 pandemic. The iPhone 17 series, released in September, has demonstrated robust performance across major markets, including Australia, the United States, and China. In China, focused marketing strategies have successfully accelerated Apple’s growth, resulting in a double-digit year-over-year increase in sales.
This upward trend is expected to propel Apple past Samsung in global market share. Counterpoint forecasts that iPhone shipments will increase by 10% in 2025, significantly outpacing Samsung’s anticipated growth of 4.6%. The overall smartphone market is projected to expand by 3.3%, with Apple poised to capture an estimated 19.4% market share, marking its first return to the top position since 2011.
“The key driver behind this upgraded outlook is the smartphone replacement cycle reaching its tipping point,” said Yang Wang, an analyst at Counterpoint. “Consumers who bought phones during the COVID-19 boom are now ready to upgrade.” Additionally, 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, indicating a significant pool of potential upgrades as users seek newer models.
Looking ahead, Wang anticipates that Apple will not only maintain its lead but also extend it. Plans for a foldable iPhone and a lower-cost iPhone 17e are set for release in 2026, followed by a significant design overhaul scheduled for 2027, as indicated by previous reports from Bloomberg. Given these trends, Counterpoint expects Apple to retain the top position through 2029.
In a recent announcement, Apple revealed that sales figures are already surpassing expectations, with projections for holiday-quarter revenue approaching a record US$140 billion. This anticipated success underscores the company’s strategic pivot to meet growing consumer demand and adapt to evolving market conditions. As the competition heats up, the smartphone landscape is poised for significant changes in the coming years, with Apple leading the charge.
