Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff is set to approach Government House on July 19, requesting that Governor Barbara Baker AC recommission his government. The move follows the prorogation of the state’s 51st parliament in June, which has left the political landscape uncertain. Rather than stepping down, Rockliff sought assurance from the governor after Opposition Leader Dean Winter indicated he would not pursue a coalition with the Greens and crossbench members.
The recent elections produced similar results for the parties involved, with the Liberals securing 14 seats, Labor obtaining 10 seats, and the Greens holding 5 seats. Despite being the leading party, Rockliff’s Liberals face a complex situation as they aim to form a government without a clear majority. Labor, under Winter’s leadership, continues to negotiate with the crossbenchers, though Winter has explicitly refused to engage with the Greens.
Negotiations and Political Maneuvering
In the current parliamentary landscape, the Liberals require support from at least four of the five remaining crossbenchers to maintain power. Rockliff has expressed that he does not view formal agreements as essential for governance, stating, “I would welcome more formal agreements of confidence and supply should individual members wish to do so.” This statement reflects his intent to engage strategically with the crossbenchers while maintaining flexibility.
Governor Baker’s decision to call the July 19 election came amid her assessment that “there was no real possibility that an alternative government can be formed.” The political climate has intensified calls for fixed four-year terms in the Tasmanian parliament, particularly following four elections in just seven years.
As the political drama unfolds, the governor’s choice to either recommission Rockliff or request formal agreements will significantly influence the future of Tasmanian governance. The outcome of these negotiations remains uncertain, as the return of parliament is anticipated in September.
Potential Outcomes for Labor and the Liberals
For the Labor Party to effectively challenge Rockliff’s leadership, they would likely need to orchestrate a successful no-confidence vote against him, followed by a confidence vote in favor of Winter. Labor has indicated that they are intensifying discussions with the crossbench, particularly as the Liberals have yet to clarify their strategy to achieve the necessary 18 seats for a majority.
As Tasmania navigates this turbulent political period, the implications of Rockliff’s appeal to the governor could reshape the state’s governance landscape. The coming weeks will be crucial as parties engage in negotiations that may determine the balance of power in the Tasmanian parliament.
