In a pivotal moment for Tasmanian politics, the Labor Party is set to initiate a vote of no-confidence against the Liberal government during the upcoming parliamentary session on August 8, 2023. Following the state election on July 19, where the Liberals secured 14 of the 35 lower house seats, Labor achieved ten, the Greens five, independents five, and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers one, the political landscape has shifted dramatically.
Jeremy Rockliff, who was the premier before the election, was reappointed on August 6. If Labor’s no-confidence motion succeeds, it could mark the first time Labor governs Tasmania since 2014. However, the party faces significant hurdles, particularly from the Greens, whose leader Rosalie Woodruff has stated they will not support Labor in the confidence vote “at this stage.” Woodruff criticized Labor leader Dean Winter for not demonstrating a willingness to compromise on critical issues.
To achieve a majority in the parliament, 18 votes are required. Political analyst Kevin Bonham noted that the Greens have ruled out abstaining from the no-confidence motion. Should Labor fail to win over the Greens, the current Liberal government will remain intact with the support of 14 Liberals and five Greens, totaling 19 votes. For Labor to assume power, they would need not only the Greens’ backing but also support from at least three of the six independent members.
The political dynamics are complex, as none of the independents have firmly committed to either side in the no-confidence motion. After the recent election, the Liberals proposed phasing out greyhound racing, a policy that has reportedly displeased the sole Shooters representative, who indicated he would not support the Liberals unless they reversed this decision.
Historically, Labor governed Tasmania from 1998 to 2014, initially in a majority and later in partnership with the Greens. Following a significant defeat in the 2014 election, Labor has been cautious in its dealings with the Greens. The party might be banking on the hope that the Greens are bluffing and will ultimately choose to support them in the no-confidence vote to prevent the continuation of Liberal governance.
The relationship between Labor and the Greens could also be influenced by the results of the 2025 federal election, where nearly 90% of Tasmanian Greens’ preferences favored Labor over the Coalition. Should the Liberals remain in power with Greens’ votes, it may lead to discontent among the Greens’ supporters.
Tasmania’s electoral system is unique; it employs a proportional representation system for its lower house elections, unlike the single-member systems used in most mainland states. In the recent election, the Liberals outperformed Labor with a 40-26 lead in statewide vote shares. This outcome implies that while Labor can secure power with the right alliances, they must negotiate effectively with both the Greens and left-leaning independents to establish a stable government for the four-year term.
As Labor gears up for the no-confidence vote, attention also turns to New South Wales, where Gareth Ward, the independent MP for Kiama, resigned on August 8 ahead of an expected expulsion motion due to a jury’s conviction on sexual assault charges. This resignation sets the stage for a byelection on September 13, 2023, which Labor hopes to contest successfully. In the 2023 state election, Ward narrowly defeated Labor with primary votes of 50.8% to 49.2%, positioning Labor as the frontrunner for the upcoming byelection.
In the broader political landscape, recent national polling indicates a favorable position for Labor. A Wolf+Smith poll conducted between July 18 and 30 showed Labor leading the Coalition by 57% to 43%, with primary votes of 36% for Labor compared to 30% for the Coalition. Respondents also expressed strong opposition to increasing the Goods and Services Tax (GST), suggesting a preference for higher company taxes to fund income tax cuts.
As Tasmania navigates this critical juncture, the outcome of the no-confidence vote and the subsequent political maneuvers will shape the future governance of the state.
