Queensland is emerging as a critical challenge for the Coalition, driven by shifting voter preferences that increasingly favour One Nation. Recent polling data from Newspoll, covering surveys from September 29 to November 20, reveals that support for the Liberals and Nationals is waning, particularly among younger Australians who continue to distance themselves from conservative parties.
The exclusive analysis, published by The Australian, highlights significant changes in voter sentiment across key demographics and regions, intensifying the pressures on Opposition Leader Sussan Ley as she seeks to reclaim ground from Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The data was gathered prior to the Bondi Beach terrorist attack and subsequent controversies surrounding Labor’s expenses, suggesting underlying vulnerabilities within the Coalition that need to be addressed in the coming months.
Queensland’s Key Role in Coalition’s Decline
Queensland stands out as the epicentre of the Coalition’s electoral difficulties. In Senator Pauline Hanson‘s home state, One Nation’s primary vote has surged to 18 percent in the final three Newspolls of the year, while Labor’s support has climbed to 33 percent. In stark contrast, the Coalition’s primary vote has dropped to 27 percent, reflecting a six-point decline since the previous quarter, primarily at the expense of One Nation, which gained eight points.
Nationally, the polling data indicates a historic low for the Coalition, with primary support sinking to 24 percent in October, the lowest since Newspoll began tracking votes in 1985. By the end of November, the Coalition remained stagnant at this level, contributing to Labor’s strong two-party-preferred lead of 58–42 percent, matching its largest margin since the May election.
Demographic Shifts and Party Strategies
Demographic analysis reveals a pronounced shift among older Australians and voters without university education, who are increasingly turning to One Nation. This trend compounds existing challenges for the Coalition, particularly in attracting younger and more educated voters. Among the 18-to-34 age group, Labor’s two-party-preferred lead has expanded to 67–33 percent, with support for the Greens reaching 26 percent, significantly higher than Coalition backing.
Furthermore, Coalition support has declined across both genders, predominantly benefiting One Nation. Ley’s personal ratings remain weak, with only 27 percent of men and 28 percent of women expressing satisfaction with her leadership, compared to much higher dissatisfaction rates. In contrast, a majority of voters view Albanese as the preferable Prime Minister. Despite this, Albanese’s results in Queensland are notably poor, with 53 percent of voters expressing dissatisfaction, even as Labor maintains a narrow two-party-preferred edge of 52–48 percent.
Labor’s dominance is even more pronounced in other states, including Victoria at 60–40, NSW at 58–42, Western Australia at 56–44, and South Australia at 58–42.
As concerns rise over the Coalition’s response to the Bondi attack and increasing incidents of anti-Semitism, strategists within the party view the upcoming summer as a critical opportunity for recovery. Members of Parliament will reconvene in January following Albanese’s early recall of parliament to pass stricter anti-vilification and hate speech laws. Since the attack, Ley has focused on supporting the Jewish-Australian community and has called for a royal commission to investigate the escalation of anti-Semitism and the government’s response.
Senior figures within the Liberal and Nationals parties have indicated that addressing issues related to Islamic extremism and border policy could bolster the Coalition’s platform as it aims to win back voters who have shifted towards One Nation.
