Recent polling data has revealed that the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen to a historic low of 27 percent, marking the worst result since the inception of the Newspoll in 1985. This dramatic decline follows internal strife, including the recent dismissal of Jacinta Nampijinpa Price from the frontbench by Opposition Leader Sussan Ley. The shifting political landscape is further complicated by a notable increase in support for minor parties, particularly One Nation, which has seen its approval ratings reach record highs.
The Newspoll, conducted last week, reported that the Coalition’s primary vote has dropped significantly, while the Labor Party maintains a steady 36 percent. This positions Labor with a commanding two-party-preferred lead of 58-42 over the Coalition, the largest margin for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese since he took office. The Coalition’s struggles are indicative of broader discontent among voters, as significant numbers are turning away from traditional party affiliations.
The aftermath of Ley’s decision to remove Price from the frontbench has illuminated ongoing divisions within the Coalition, particularly concerning issues of migration, climate change, and net-zero policies. As a result, One Nation has capitalized on this discontent, climbing to 10 percent support in the Newspoll. Additionally, the Greens have increased their support to 13 percent, while independents and other minor parties have garnered 14 percent of voter preference.
The impact of the polling results is also reflected in Ley’s personal approval ratings. Her net approval has dropped to minus 17, with only 32 percent of voters expressing satisfaction with her performance. In comparisons for preferred prime minister, she trails Albanese significantly, with a rating of 31-51.
Ley’s leadership has been further challenged as her colleagues dismiss speculation regarding a leadership contest. In an effort to regain control, she has reshuffled her frontbench team, promoting conservatives Claire Chandler and Simon Kennedy while reinstating James Paterson to her leadership group.
The concerning polling figures are corroborated by the latest findings from the Resolve Political Monitor, published by Nine. This survey also reported the Coalition’s primary vote at 27 percent, consistent with the Newspoll results and the lowest since the monitor began in 2021. Labor’s support has dipped by two points to 35 percent, while One Nation has surged to a historic 12 percent approval rating.
In terms of two-party-preferred voting, Labor maintains a lead of 55-45, unchanged from the outcome of the May election. Although Albanese’s net performance rating has also fallen to minus one, he continues to lead Ley as preferred leader with a margin of 38-26.
Both polls illustrate a significant decline in support for the major parties and an increasing interest in minor political players, with One Nation capturing double-digit support for the first time in the Resolve monitor. The current political climate suggests that the Coalition faces substantial challenges ahead as it navigates internal divisions and a changing electorate.
