The F1 Wagyu market is experiencing a notable downturn, with prices trading below historical averages as of July 2025. The average F1 Wagyu price reached 962 cents per kilogram carcass weight (c/kg cwt) for the month, remaining above the May low of 848 c/kg but significantly below the peaks observed in 2022. This decline continues a trend of compressed premiums over broader cattle market benchmarks, which highlights challenges in the sector.
Current Market Conditions for F1 Wagyu
As of the end of July, the National Feeder Steer Indicator (NFSI) closed at 792 c/kg, while the National Young Cattle Indicator stood at 747 c/kg. The narrowing premium spread between F1 Wagyu and these indicators has dropped to just 21 percent. Throughout 2025, the pricing for F1 Wagyu has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 850 and 1,050 c/kg cwt. This pattern mimics previous oversupply phases, where an influx of lower-quality cattle has led to subdued values.
The average premium for F1 Wagyu over the NFSI has seen a dramatic decline. From a high of over 600 cents per kilogram live weight (c/lwt) in early 2022, the premium has eroded steadily, hovering around 50 cents above zero by mid-2025. This shift underscores a combination of weakened Wagyu demand and relatively strong prices for feeder cattle this year.
Implications for the Wagyu Industry
Data from the industry indicates that 2025 monthly values have predominantly averaged approximately 90 cents above the NFSI so far this season. This trend mirrors the 2018-19 oversupply period when quality variations in the F1 pool adversely affected overall market performance. The average premium to the NFSI has narrowed from about 140 cents at the start of 2025 to just 45 cents by the end of July.
The current landscape points to a domestic oversupply issue and a sluggish international demand for Wagyu beef. Without a stimulus for demand recovery in premium beef markets abroad or a decrease in F1 supply, it is likely that the market will continue to operate in the lower deciles of its long-term premium range for the remainder of 2025.
Overall, the F1 Wagyu market reflects broader economic conditions affecting the beef industry, with implications for producers and consumers alike as they navigate this challenging environment.
