The upcoming no-confidence vote in the Tasmanian Parliament could pose significant challenges for the Labor Party. Scheduled for August 8, 2023, this pivotal vote follows the July 19 state election, where the Liberals secured 14 out of 35 lower house seats, Labor won ten, the Greens took five, independents claimed five, and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers received one.
Jeremy Rockliff, who was the Premier prior to the election, was reappointed on August 6, 2023, pending the parliamentary session. Labor intends to initiate a no-confidence motion as parliament reconvenes. If successful, this could pave the way for Labor to govern Tasmania for the first time since 2014, provided they can also secure a motion of confidence.
On August 1, Rosalie Woodruff, the leader of the Greens, announced that her party would not support Labor in the confidence vote “at this stage.” She emphasized that Labor leader Dean Winter has not demonstrated a willingness to negotiate on issues that are vital to the Greens. To achieve a majority, Labor requires 18 votes, but analysts suggest the Greens have ruled out abstaining on the no-confidence motion.
Analyst Kevin Bonham explained that if Labor cannot win the Greens’ support, the Liberals will maintain control of the government, as their 14 votes combined with the five from the Greens would total 19. Labor also needs the backing of at least three out of six independent members to gain a governing majority. Despite the left-leaning tendencies of five of those independents, none have firmly committed to either Labor or the Liberals.
After the election, the Liberals proposed phasing out greyhound racing, a move that has displeased the one member of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party, who has stated he will not support the Liberals unless they reverse this policy.
Historically, Labor held power in Tasmania from 1998 until 2014, including a period of governance in coalition with the Greens from 2010 to 2014. The party suffered a significant defeat in the 2014 election, which has since made them cautious in their dealings with the Greens. Labor appears hopeful that the Greens may reconsider their stance and support them in the no-confidence motion, rather than inadvertently aiding the Liberals.
Notably, during the 2025 federal election, nearly 90% of Tasmanian Greens’ preferences were directed towards Labor over the Coalition. Should the Liberals continue to govern with support from the Greens, it could lead to discontent among Green supporters.
Tasmania employs a proportional representation system for its lower house elections, differing from the single-member systems used in many mainland states. In the recent election, the Liberals triumphed over Labor with a statewide vote share of 40% to 26%.
While Labor can potentially form a government with the Greens and left-leaning independents, effective negotiations are essential for establishing a stable administration capable of lasting through a significant portion of the four-year term. As the no-confidence vote approaches, the political landscape in Tasmania remains uncertain, with critical negotiations expected in the days leading up to the parliamentary session.
