The political landscape in Australia is shifting as support for One Nation grows, with leader Pauline Hanson seeing her party’s approval ratings reach notable highs. Recent polling indicates the party’s primary vote has surged to 22%, a significant increase from the 2025 election when they garnered just 7%. This boost comes as traditional voting blocs express dissatisfaction with the Liberal and National parties, leaving room for Hanson to capitalize on this discontent.
Hanson’s past experiences, particularly during the October 2017 snap election announced by then-Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, highlight the volatility of her political journey. At the time, while polling indicated One Nation could be poised for significant gains, the reality was starkly different. The party secured only one seat, despite strong initial support that saw them polling above 20%. Many of their candidates were later found to have disqualifying issues, and their campaign faltered under pressure.
Despite these setbacks, Hanson has demonstrated resilience, becoming a notable figure in Australian politics for nearly three decades. Her blend of grievance politics and media presence, including appearances on breakfast television and reality shows, has kept her in the public eye. In the past year, One Nation doubled its representation in parliament and welcomed the high-profile defection of former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce.
As the political environment becomes more fragmented, One Nation’s rising popularity is noteworthy. A Guardian-Essential poll revealed the party’s primary vote at 22%, tying them with the Coalition for the first time according to Newspoll. In YouGov surveys, Hanson leads the Coalition by five points, indicating her party’s growing influence, especially in rural constituencies where they reportedly outperformed the Coalition 35% to 21% in primary votes.
Hanson’s strategic team, including chief-of-staff James Ashby, has effectively utilized social media and direct engagement with disillusioned voters. Her partnership with prominent business figures, such as mining magnate Gina Rinehart, has bolstered the party’s financial resources ahead of the next federal election, scheduled for early 2028. Recently, Ashby teased a major announcement intended to attract further attention and potentially high-profile additions to the party.
The current political climate, marked by rising economic anxiety and debates surrounding immigration, plays to Hanson’s strengths. Public sentiment regarding immigration has shifted significantly; a Scanlon Foundation report indicated that the percentage of Australians believing immigration levels are too high rose from 24% in 2022 to 51% by last year. Hanson’s narrative resonates with voters who feel overlooked by mainstream parties.
Despite these factors working in her favor, challenges remain for Hanson and One Nation. The complexity of campaigning in Australia often undermines smaller parties. Historical trends suggest that while they may enjoy significant support in polls, translating that into seats in parliament is another matter entirely. The electoral system, particularly in lower house contests, can pose substantial hurdles.
Political analyst Antony Green noted that One Nation’s current polling levels could translate into seat gains if they maintain their position, particularly in contested areas like Hunter in New South Wales. Yet, securing effective preference flows remains crucial, as many voters do not strictly adhere to how-to-vote instructions.
Hanson’s past experiences, including her controversial maiden speech in federal parliament in 1996, have shaped her political identity. As the party prepares for the upcoming election, Hanson faces the dual challenge of retaining the support she has gained while navigating the complexities of Australian electoral politics. The upcoming months will be critical in determining whether One Nation can finally transition from a fringe party to a significant player in the Australian political arena.
