Ministers for climate protection across EU Member States have announced a new climate objective, aiming to cut the region’s CO2 emissions by an ambitious 90 percent by the year 2040, compared to levels recorded in 1990. As part of this strategy, starting in 2036, the European Union will permit the use of international carbon credits to achieve up to five percent of this reduction. Additionally, the new target seeks a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions by 66.25 to 72.5 percent by 2035.
Benedict Probst, an environmental economist and director of the Net Zero Lab at the Max Planck Institute for Innovation and Competition in Munich, has raised significant concerns about the effectiveness of these carbon offsets in contributing to genuine climate protection.
Carbon Credits: A Step Backward?
Probst argues that relying on international carbon credits may undermine the EU’s climate ambitions. He states, “If we meet a significant portion of our climate targets through carbon credits, we will be taking the pressure off the European economy to undergo a true transformation.” He emphasizes that the past two decades have demonstrated that carbon offsets have generally fallen short of delivering the promised emissions reductions.
The implications of this strategy extend beyond environmental concerns. Probst warns, “Every euro we put into questionable certificates is money that is not available for investments here at home: in renewable energies, heat pumps, green hydrogen, and climate-neutral industry.” He highlights the risk that while Europe relies on offsets, countries like China are making substantial investments in advanced technologies critical for future industries.
Understanding the Five Percent Allowance
The potential allowance of five percent of CO2 emissions to be credited through non-European emissions certificates may seem manageable. However, Probst points out that this figure represents a significant amount when viewed against the EU’s 2040 target. If fully utilized, this provision could result in an additional 50 percent of CO2 emissions being counted, complicating the path to meeting the ambitious climate goals set forth by the EU.
As the EU pursues these new targets, the debate surrounding carbon offsets is likely to intensify. The balance between meeting climate objectives and encouraging genuine technological advancements will be crucial as Europe navigates its commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The future of the region’s climate policy may well depend on its ability to prioritize effective strategies that foster innovation while addressing the urgent need for climate action.
