UPDATE: Gold futures have surged past $4,000 per ounce for the first time, reaching a peak of $4,002 amid escalating concerns over the ongoing US government shutdown and political instability in France and Japan. As of 11:10 AM in New York, spot gold was trading around $3,982 an ounce, poised for its largest annual gain since 1979.
The shutdown, now entering its second week, has left investors without crucial economic data, compelling traders to navigate uncertain waters. The Federal Reserve is grappling with shifting economic conditions, with expectations mounting for a potential quarter-point interest rate cut this month. Such a move could further bolster gold, which is typically favored during periods of low interest rates.
In France, the resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu has exacerbated fiscal concerns, complicating efforts to address the nation’s substantial deficit—the largest in the euro area. Simultaneously, political upheaval in Japan, where Sanae Takaichi is expected to take over as Prime Minister, has strengthened the US dollar against both the euro and yen, the second and third most-traded currencies globally.
According to Nicky Shiels, head of research and metals strategy at MKS Pamp, these political shifts are fueling gold’s rally. A combination of robust retail demand, particularly in Europe and Japan, alongside significant institutional investments, is driving prices upward.
The aggressive economic policies of US President Donald Trump have also played a pivotal role in gold’s remarkable climb—up nearly 50 percent this year. His trade maneuvers have prompted a flight to safety, pushing investors away from the dollar and towards gold. Central banks and gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have ramped up purchases, further energizing the market.
In a striking development, the People’s Bank of China has continued its gold buying spree, marking an 11th consecutive month of increased purchases. This trend reflects a growing global appetite for the precious metal as economic uncertainty looms.
Market analysts from Goldman Sachs Group have revised their price forecast for gold, projecting it could reach $4,900 an ounce by December 2026, an increase from their previous estimate of $4,300. They attribute this bullish outlook to robust ETF inflows and heightened central bank purchases.
Amid this surge, David Chao, a global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management, advises investors to consider increasing their gold allocations, despite its elevated price. He suggests a portfolio allocation of around 5 percent to gold as a prudent measure against potential volatility in the US dollar and ongoing economic shocks.
As gold prices continue to rise, consumers and investors alike are advised to stay informed about these developing trends. The market’s reaction to political events in key economies will be critical in the days and weeks to come. Share this urgent update with others to keep them informed about the latest in gold market dynamics.
