URGENT UPDATE: A critical shift is underway as a key Pentagon official, Elbridge Colby, has seemingly reversed his position on Australia’s multibillion-dollar nuclear submarine deal under the AUKUS partnership. This development comes just months after Colby initiated a review of the proposed transfer of advanced military technology, aimed at aligning with President Donald Trump’s “America first” agenda.
Earlier today, Nikkei Asia reported that the Trump administration is committed to maintaining the original timeline for the AUKUS Pillar I, which includes the sale of three Virginia-class submarines set to begin in 2032. An unnamed official confirmed, “AUKUS is safe,” emphasizing that no political decisions have altered the planned schedule, although industrial delays may still pose challenges.
Colby, who serves as the US Under Secretary of War for Policy, was previously vocal about his skepticism regarding the $368 billion AUKUS partnership. Last year, he expressed concerns about transferring such a vital asset, stating, “My concern is why are we giving away this crown jewel asset when we most need it?”
During an official visit to the United States, Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles was assured that the AUKUS partnership remains intact, although specifics about the submarine sale were not detailed. Before departing the United Arab Emirates, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed that the Pentagon review is ongoing but assured that AUKUS is meeting its milestones. “We know that AUKUS is in the interests of Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States,” Albanese stated, underscoring the partnership’s significance for regional peace and security.
Marles reiterated confidence in the AUKUS deal but acknowledged that the review by Colby is still in progress. “The review is still ongoing… we’re not going to get ahead of ourselves,” he said, adding that the collaboration has been productive. “AUKUS is the subject of a trilateral treaty… an incoming government having a review of how it can be done better is a really natural step.”
Opposition Leader Sussan Ley characterized the news as a “positive story” but criticized the government for the lack of direct communication regarding the review’s outcomes. “What we should have is conviction and confirmation by our prime minister because of a personal relationship that he should have with the US president that he clearly doesn’t have,” she remarked.
A Pentagon spokesperson also confirmed earlier today that “the AUKUS initiative is still under review” and that there are “no further updates to announce at this time.” Under the AUKUS agreement, Australia has already disbursed $1 billion USD to the United States this year to enhance its submarine industrial base, with an additional $1 billion payment due by the end of 2025.
Defense experts suggest that continuing the AUKUS partnership presents a low-risk policy for Washington, potentially reinforcing political signals and bolstering Australia’s confidence in its alliance. “This doesn’t change the fact that Canberra might not receive the Virginia-class submarines,” cautioned Dr. Elizabeth Buchanan, a senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. She warns that significant changes could arise in the coming months, including potential US requests for Australia to increase defense spending to 5% of its GDP, a politically sensitive proposition for the Albanese government.
As this situation develops, the future of the AUKUS partnership and the associated submarine deal remains uncertain. Stakeholders are urged to stay tuned for updates as negotiations and reviews continue at the highest levels.
