BREAKING NEWS: South Australia emerges as a global leader in renewable energy, while New South Wales (NSW) scrambles to avoid a looming coal crisis. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has just released its Transition Plan for System Security, highlighting South Australia’s unique position as the most secure renewable grid in the country.
With nearly 75 percent of its energy sourced from wind and solar, South Australia has successfully navigated the complexities of energy transition ahead of other states. The report confirms that South Australia is the only state not facing a system strength deficit, thanks to its rapid shift away from coal, which culminated in the closure of its last coal-fired power station in 2016.
The implications for NSW are urgent. As the state prepares for the impending closure of its aging coal generators, including the 2.88 GW Eraring facility slated for August 2027, officials are racing against time. AEMO warns that without adequate replacements for critical grid services, NSW could face severe energy shortages. “Risks of needing to de-energise assets and shed load may arise if there are insufficient synchronous generators available,” AEMO cautioned.
Currently, NSW is under pressure to meet its system strength needs, with Transgrid authorized to secure contracts for up to 10 small synchronous condensers (syncons). However, these measures may not be sufficient before 2028, raising concerns about the spring of 2027.
“Further decommitment of coal generation shortly after Eraring’s retirement could exacerbate these existing issues,” AEMO warned.
As the coal crisis looms, South Australia is preparing for a future where it could run its grid entirely on renewable energy, potentially achieving a “no coal” scenario as early as 2031/32. This pioneering approach sets a precedent for other states and highlights the urgent need for a comprehensive energy transition strategy.
Despite being the largest coal fleet in Australia, NSW faces increasing challenges. The closure of coal plants like Yallourn in 2028 and Gladstone in 2029 further complicates the landscape. AEMO’s report indicates that immediate action is necessary to ensure reliability and system security as these closures approach.
AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman emphasized the importance of new investments and reforms: “New investments and reforms are needed to maintain system security in advance of these transition points.” The report outlines essential steps to replace the system security services provided by retiring coal plants, including greater reliance on renewable energy sources.
As the debate surrounding energy technology intensifies, stakeholders are urged to engage in discussions about the future of energy in Australia. The successful transition to a high-renewable grid is crucial for meeting national targets and ensuring energy security for all Australians.
This situation is developing rapidly, and the energy sector must remain vigilant. With critical decisions looming, the actions taken by NSW and other states in the coming months will significantly impact Australia’s energy future.
For those invested in the future of energy, further developments in the AEMO report will be closely monitored. Stay tuned as we continue to provide updates on this urgent and evolving story.
