UPDATE: New reports confirm that Australia’s recently announced 2035 carbon targets are poised to dramatically impact farmers, particularly in the Wheatbelt region. As the government pushes for net-zero emissions by 2050, many farmers are expressing skepticism about the long-term promises tied to these ambitious goals.
The National Farmers Federation and other agricultural bodies have not provided clarity on how these targets will affect farming costs. With the Safeguard Mechanism now covering facilities emitting over 100,000 tonnes of CO2-e annually, farmers may soon face escalating costs buried deep within the supply chain, camouflaged by euphemistic labels such as the Capacity Investment Scheme and the Emissions Reduction Fund.
The clock is ticking as the government’s 2035 targets mandate steeper annual reductions in emissions. Under the previous 2030 target, emissions baselines were set to decline by roughly 4.9 percent per year. Now, farmers and suppliers will have to cut emissions even faster, with costs ultimately passed on to producers who lack the leverage to raise prices for consumers.
Farmers are already feeling the pressure. According to ABARES modeling, decarbonization policies could raise energy-intensive input prices by 10–30 percent, particularly affecting fertilizer and diesel costs. With the potential for a A$200,000 increase in production costs for a 4,000-hectare wheat-sheep farm by 2035, the stakes could not be higher.
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that locally produced fuel, fertilizer, and food will bear the burden of compliance costs, while imports may remain unaffected. Legal experts warn that Australia’s obligations under WTO agreements will limit the government’s ability to impose a carbon border adjustment similar to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.
“Farmers are walking blind into a carbon cost trap,”
warns a leading agricultural analyst. The impending costs, coupled with the government’s lack of transparency regarding the financial implications of the 2035 targets, have left many in the farming community feeling anxious and uncertain about their future.
As corporate giants like Woodside and Hancock Prospecting strategize to offset emissions by investing in land for carbon farming, the risk of displacing traditional agriculture looms large. This trend could lead to a significant reduction in local food production, raising fears about food security in Australia.
The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated. Without concrete modeling of how much the new targets will increase production costs per hectare, farmers remain in the dark about their financial futures. The government’s optimistic narrative surrounding renewable energy jobs and opportunities fails to address the substantial economic risks involved.
As the nation marches toward 2050 with its carbon goals, many farmers fear they are being left behind. The real question remains: Will the government acknowledge the hidden costs before it’s too late? With an uncertain road ahead, Australian agriculture may be on the brink of a transformative and potentially perilous shift.
Farmers are encouraged to stay informed and engaged as the situation develops. The time to act is now; understanding the implications of the 2035 carbon targets on the agricultural sector is critical for survival in an increasingly competitive global market.
