An adviser to the Biden administration has emphasized the importance of maintaining the AUKUS agreement, which aims to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines, in light of a Pentagon review. In a joint paper with former State Department official Charles Edel, Abraham Denmark pointed out critical issues that need to be addressed to ensure the success of the initiative.
Denmark acknowledged the necessity for “a thorough review of AUKUS” by the previous administration, but he warned that scrapping the project would diminish the effectiveness of the United States in the Indo-Pacific region. He stated that failure to support AUKUS would undermine U.S. deterrence capabilities and significantly damage its international credibility.
Concerns Over Resource Allocation and Costs
The paper, prepared for the Centre for the Strategic and International Studies, outlined several pressing challenges related to AUKUS. Among these are the slow production rates of U.S. submarines and concerns about whether Australia would deploy U.S.-made submarines in a regional conflict while depleting American resources.
The financial implications are substantial, with estimates suggesting that Australia will invest approximately $240 billion (A$368 billion) over the next 30 years in this partnership. Additionally, the report highlighted a shortage of skilled labor for submarine production across the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom, which could impede progress.
Denmark and Edel also raised practical issues, including delays in establishing “AUKUS visas” to facilitate movement for personnel involved in the project. They pointed out that the objectives of the second pillar of AUKUS, which focuses on collaborative efforts in advanced weaponry, require clearer definitions to enhance effectiveness.
Strategic Importance of AUKUS
Despite these challenges, Denmark emphasized that reinforcing AUKUS is a “strategic imperative.” The report posits that a successful AUKUS initiative would bolster the defense industrial base of the United States, strengthen ties with its closest allies, and send a strong deterrent message to Beijing. It could also contribute to stabilizing the broader Indo-Pacific region.
The details surrounding the AUKUS agreement, which includes plans for Australia to receive nuclear-powered attack submarines starting in the early 2030s, were first revealed in 2021 under President Joe Biden. This initiative is part of broader efforts to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific.
The Pentagon initiated a review of the trilateral collaboration between the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom in June 2023 to ensure alignment with the previous administration’s “America First” agenda. This review, led by Elbridge Colby, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, aims to address concerns regarding the potential loss of U.S. submarines to Australia during a critical period for deterrence against China.
Last month, leaders from both the Republican and Democratic parties in a U.S. congressional committee focused on strategic competition with China expressed strong bipartisan support for AUKUS, highlighting its significance in U.S. foreign policy.
As the review progresses, the future of AUKUS remains a key topic in discussions about U.S. defense strategy and international relations.
