Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has taken a significant step in international relations by expelling Iran’s ambassador and closing Australia’s embassy in Tehran. This decision follows intelligence reports linking two antisemitic attacks in Sydney and Melbourne to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards of Iran. The move signals a deteriorating relationship between Australia and Iran, adding to Tehran’s challenges on the global stage.
The diplomatic setback coincides with rising tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The United Kingdom, France, and Germany have indicated their intention to restore major sanctions imposed by the United Nations, further complicating Iran’s position in international affairs.
Nuclear Concerns Intensify
Iran has long been suspected of seeking to develop nuclear weapons, an issue that has alarmed the international community. This concern was a backdrop to the recent conflict with Israel, which saw military actions ordered by former US President Donald Trump against Iranian facilities. Under the leadership of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has held power since 1989, Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities poses a potential shift in the regional power balance, particularly in relation to Israel.
Recent statements from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reveal that Iran is “dramatically” accelerating uranium enrichment, reaching levels of up to 60 percent purity—close to the approximately 90 percent purity required for weapons-grade material. This rapid development has renewed calls for diplomatic engagement and oversight.
In 2015, Iran reached a significant agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with six world powers, including the US, UK, France, Russia, and China. The deal aimed to curb Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of crippling sanctions. At the time, President Barack Obama expressed optimism that the agreement would prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Snapback Sanctions on the Horizon
As part of the JCPOA, a “snapback” mechanism allows any signatory to reimpose UN sanctions if Iran is found to be in significant non-compliance. This week, the UK, France, and Germany initiated a 30-day process to activate this mechanism, arguing that Iran’s recent actions warrant the reinstatement of sanctions.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described this action as a “direct response to Iran’s continuing defiance of its nuclear commitments.” He emphasized the importance of diplomatic negotiations to resolve the ongoing nuclear issue, aligning the US with the European nations’ efforts.
The UN Security Council is now tasked with voting on whether to maintain sanctions relief for Iran. A resolution to extend this relief requires at least nine votes in favor and no vetoes from the five permanent members, including the US, UK, France, Russia, and China. Given the current geopolitical dynamics, such a resolution is likely to face significant hurdles.
Even if the Security Council votes in favor of extending sanctions relief, Britain and France could exercise their veto power to block the resolution. If the snapback mechanism is enacted, all pre-2015 sanctions on Iran would be reinstated by late September, unless the Security Council takes alternative action.
While Iran faces increasing isolation from Western nations, its allies, Russia and China, argue that the European nations have not adhered to their own obligations under the JCPOA. Although they possess veto power within the Security Council, they may choose not to implement the sanctions and could block any attempts to penalize them for such actions.
As diplomatic tensions rise, Iran finds itself in a precarious position on the global stage. The recent developments not only highlight the complexities of international relations but also raise questions about the future of Iran’s nuclear program and its implications for regional security.
